馬丁

[馬丁]

英國一兩個家禽養殖場爆發新的 H5N1 疫情，而且 - 你相信嗎！ – 黛博拉·麥肯齊 (Deborah Mackenzie) 很快就暗示野生鳥類對此負有責任，儘管沒有任何證據：

引用：

雷德格雷夫公園農場非常靠近一個大型觀賞湖
是野生鳥類的棲息地，距離濕地自然保護區 4 公里。

該保護區是英格蘭現存最大的沼澤河
根據《拉姆薩爾濕地條約》受到國際保護
是多種瀕危物種的家園。這裡還棲息著多種物種
涉水鴨，它們可能是從繁殖期飛到該地區的
過去兩個月在西伯利亞的基地。

秋天是鴨子的季節，它們可以攜帶 H5N1，但沒有任何症狀。
最有可能攜帶禽流感。英國也首次爆發疫情
靠近濕地保護區。家鴨也可能攜帶病毒
沒有任何跡象。

——天哪！黛布顯然住在一個掩體裡，遠離科學報告；指的是英國首次爆發疫情和附近的濕地保護區，當時有報道指責家禽貿易與歐洲大陸的聯繫以及糟糕的生物安全。

同時，回到現實世界，倉促下結論的情況並不像在 DB 辦公桌上的家禽和農業出版物《New Sci》中那樣常見，《泰晤士報》報導：

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目前正在對從荷蘭進口的一日齡小鴨進行調查，以確定是否為 H5N1 禽流感病毒抵達英國的可能途徑。

《泰晤士報》獲悉，格雷辛厄姆食品公司定期收到一家荷蘭出口商交付的小鴨。

荷蘭進口小鴨成為禽流感調查的焦點

[馬丁]

BBC News website has strong series on global warming scepticism, by environment editor Rickard Black. One article looks at supposed bias within science against sceptics, who like to allege their views are muffled. Includes:

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Of all the accusations made by the vociferous community of climate sceptics, surely the most damaging is that science itself is biased against them. … I invited sceptics to put their cards on the table, and send me documentation or other firm evidence of bias. … Stefan Rahmstorf from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, who is something of an anti-hero to sceptics’ groups as he believes IPCC projections of sea-level rise are far too conservative, had heard this argument before, and he wrote in telling me it was far from convincing. "How likely is it that my funding would suffer if I found a good alternative explanation for the observed global warming, or that I would have trouble publishing it (assuming it would be methodologically sound, of course)?" he asked. "Quite the contrary, I would see it as a path to certain fame! Scientists always strive to find something radically new and different – just reconfirming what is already quite well-known is boring, and certainly will not get you the Nobel Prize. … The sum total of evidence obtained through this open invitation, then, is one first-hand claim of bias in scientific journals, not backed up by documentary evidence; and three second-hand claims, two well-known and one that the scientist in question does not consider evidence of anti-sceptic feeling. No-one said they had been refused a place on the IPCC, the central global body in climate change, or denied a job or turned down for promotion or sacked or refused access to a conference platform, or indeed anything else. If there is an anti-sceptic bias running through the institutions of science, it is evidently keeping itself well hidden. … But I will say this; if someone persistently claims to be a great football player, and yet fails to find the net when you put him in front of an open goal, you cannot do other than doubt his claim.

Climate science: Sceptical about bias

[馬丁]

Another strong AP article on coal use – focusing on China’s massive and growing demand for coal. Includes:

引用：

Cheap and abundant, coal has become the fuel of choice in much of the world, powering economic booms in China and India that have lifted millions of people out of poverty. Worldwide demand is projected to rise by about 60 percent through 2030 to 6.9 billion tons a year, most of it going to electrical power plants. But the growth of coal-burning is also contributing to global warming, and is linked to environmental and health issues including acid rain and asthma. Air pollution kills more than 2 million people prematurely, according to the World Health Organization. "Hands down, coal is by far the dirtiest pollutant," said Dan Jaffe, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Washington who has detected pollutants from Asia at monitoring sites on Mount Bachelor in Oregon and Cheeka Peak in Washington state. "It is a pretty bad fuel on all scores." …

With pressure to clean up major cities such as Shanghai and Beijing, particularly in the run-up to next year’s Beijing Olympics, the central government is turning increasingly to provinces such as Shanxi to meet the country’s power demands. "They look at polluted places like Taiyuan and say it’s so polluted there so it doesn’t matter if they have another five power plants," said Ramanan Laxminarayan, a senior fellow at Resources For the Future, an American think tank that found links between air pollution and rising hospital admissions in Taiyuan. "I visited these power plants and there is no concept of pollution control," he said. "They sort of had a laugh and asked, ‘Why would you expect us to install pollution control equipment?’" China is home to 20 of the world’s 30 most polluted cities, according to a World Bank report. Health costs related to air pollution total $68 billion a year, nearly 4 percent of the country’s economic output, the report said. And acid rain has contaminated a third of the country, Sheng Huaren, a senior Chinese parliamentary official, said last year. It is said to destroy some $4 billion worth of crops every year. "What we are facing in China is enormous economic growth, and … China is paying a price for it," said Henk Bekedam, the country representative for the World Health Organization. "Their growth is not sustainable from an environmental perspective. The good news is that they realize it. The bad news is they’re dependent on coal as an energy source."

But the costs go far beyond China. The soot from power plants boosts global warming because coal emits almost twice as much carbon dioxide as natural gas. And researchers from Texas A&M University found that air pollution from China and India has increased in cloud cover and major Pacific Ocean storms by 20 percent to 50 percent over the past 20 years. … "Everyone knows coal is dirty, but there is no way that China can get rid of coal," the World Bank’s Zhao Jianping said in Beijing. "It must rely on it for years to come, until humans can find a new magic solution."

World’s coal dependency hits environment

World’s growing dependence on coal leaving a trail of environmental devastation across globe

[馬丁]

Over on ICECAP – some website I hadn’t heard of that likes to decry global warming – there’s short item by John Coleman that’s attracted attention on right-wing blogs and in the Daily Telegraph.

包括：

引用：

It is the greatest scam in history. I am amazed, appalled and highly offended by it. Global Warming; It is a SCAM. Some dastardly scientists with environmental and political motives manipulated long term scientific data to create an illusion of rapid global warming. Other scientists of the same environmental whacko type jumped into the circle to support and broaden the “research” to further enhance the totally slanted, bogus global warming claims. …

I am telling you Global Warming is a non-event, a manufactured crisis and a total scam. I say this knowing you probably won’t believe a me, a mere TV weatherman …

I have read dozens of scientific papers. I have talked with numerous scientists. I have studied. I have thought about it. I know I am correct.

Weather Channel Founder: Global Warming ‘Greatest Scam in History’

Ah, he’s read "dozens of papers".

And this the man who has been quoted as saying "Being a TV weatherman in San Diego is an outrageous scam," John Coleman

Now, the Daily Telegraph ran article on Coleman’s thoughts, w article calling him "Weather Channel boss" – not noticing, it seems, he was turfed out of the Weather Channel some years ago, and the channel now presents info on global warming issue. Ah well, seems Coleman’s effort has proved another straw to clutch at for global warming denialists.

One more thing that occurred to me, after seeing re Coleman: denialists seem to often be getting on in years; maybe they care little re the future, figuring they won’t see much of it, so doesn’t really matter what they say or write.

[馬丁]

有趣的是，在我對所看到的照片感到好奇之後，有報道稱互聯網博客等對華南虎照片的真實性提出了質疑。

拍攝這些照片的農民正前往北京，讓國家林業局的人員核實照片（或不核實！）

剛剛看到一個團隊將在據稱拍攝照片的地區進行調查。新聞項目包括：

引用：

照片中出現了許多可疑點，包括陽光的角度和一些樹葉的大小。

陝西省林業廳表示，希望在該省設立國家級自然保護區。老虎的消息，無論真假，都已經為這個陝北這個5.7萬人口的縣城帶來了前所未有的關注。

週曾是一名獵人，他在省林業局計劃於 10 月 12 日召開老虎再現新聞發布會的前一天拒絕公佈自己的照片，這也引起了更多懷疑。

週說，除非省政府懸賞他100萬元，否則他不會允許他的照片發表(US$133,333)。他最終同意將兩張照片的要求降低到2萬元。

團隊將調查可能出現的老虎目擊事件

[馬丁]

News piece on Canada.com has some pretty damning looking claims re IPCC, by one Vivian Gray. Includes:

引用：

Dr. Gray’s mission, in his new role as cofounder of The New Zealand Climate Science Coalition, is to stop the IPCC from spreading climate-change propaganda that undermines the integrity of science.

“The whole process is a swindle,” he states, in large part because the IPCC has a blinkered mandate that excludes natural causes of global warming.
…
Dr. Gray is one of the 2,000 to 2,500 top scientists from around the world whom the IPCC often cites as forming the basis of its findings. No one has been a more faithful reviewer than Dr. Gray over the years — he has been an IPCC expert almost from the start, and perhaps its most prolific contributor, logging almost 1,900 comments on the IPCC’s final draft of its most recent report alone.
…
Dr. Gray was asked to endorse this [IPCC] reform effort, but he refused, saying: “The IPCC is fundamentally corrupt. The only ‘reform’ I could envisage would be its abolition.”

IPCC too blinkered and corrupt to save

I hadn’t heard of Vincent Gray. Did a bit of googling, and noticed that – like me – he has a PhD in chemistry from Cambridge University; so far so good, perhaps.
But then, found a short profile on DeSmogBlog – where it says

引用：

A search of 22,000 academic journals shows that Gray has never been published in a peer-reviewed journal on the subject of climate change. Gray has published peer-reviewed scientific work on coal with the last article being published 17 years ago.
…
Listed as a member of the Scientific Advisory Committee for the Natural Resource Stewardship Project (NRSP), a lobby organization that refuses to disclose it’s funding sources. The NRSP is led by executive director Tom Harris and Dr. Tim Ball. [oh dear, Dr Tim who’s prone to Ballocks – see above]

Vincent Gray
– hmm, a member of a committee that refuses to disclose funding sources… – and the IPCC is corrupt, eh?

[馬丁]

A scientific paper that’s just out says that it’s impossible to predict with certainty just how bad climate change will be (I’ve posted to new thread re this). Led to one of the most stupid blog posts I’ve seen, on American "Thinker". Includes:

引用：

an entire Global Warming fraud industry has grown up, based on years of pseudo-scientific false alarms, and feeding scare headlines without end around the world. But the science is finally clear: Any reasonable evidence [sic] is not only missing, but can in principle not be obtained in a system as complex as the earth climate. End of story — at least among scientists with a shred of integrity left.

SCIENCE: Earth climate is too complex to predict Well, what bone-headed, crass crap. Not only does the writer confuse "reasonable evidence" with information needed for detailed modelling, but he also gets whole argument utterly wrong – as well as being curiously selective in what science he likes: ie most climate change science wrong, but when paper re uncertainty comes out it’s correct. I’ve posted to the writer’s blog:

引用：

Suppose some pinko-liberal or even commie country were to go to war with the US of A – exactly how many people would die? Or even if some terrorists let off a few dirty bombs in some US cities, how many would die now and in future, inc from side effects? You can’t predict for sure? Then – according to your absurd piece on American Idiot (Thinker? – hahahaha, gimme a break) these are not real threats, and we shouldn’t do anything to prevent them happening.

[馬丁]

因此，布希政府試圖壓制有關全球暖化及其影響的消息的日子還沒有結束。
從思考進步：

引用：

疾病預防控制中心官員現在透露，白宮對格伯丁（即疾病管制與預防中心主任朱莉·格伯丁博士）的證詞進行了嚴重編輯（向參議院委員會提交的關於「全球暖化對人類的影響」的證詞），證詞原本較長並有更多「有關健康風險的資訊」：

「它被剔除了，」一位熟悉這兩個版本的疾病預防控制中心官員表示，由於審查過程的敏感性，該官員要求匿名。

這位官員表示，雖然在白宮審查中改變證詞是慣例，但這些改變尤其“嚴厲”，文件從原來的 14 頁減少到了 4 頁。提交給參議院委員會的文件有六頁。

白宮刪除的內容包括“有關有多少人可能因氣候變暖而受到不利影響的詳細信息，以及疾病預防控制中心對氣候變暖和海平面上升可能傳播哪些疾病的一些分析的科學依據。”

白宮「剔除」疾病預防控制中心主任參議院關於全球暖化的證詞

ABC 新聞也報導了這個故事；報告內容包括：

引用：

週二，環境和公共衛生專家強烈譴責白宮編輯聯邦衛生機構負責人向國會提供的證詞。有關全球暖化及其對人類健康的潛在影響的證詞被大量刪除。
故事

ABC 新聞獲得的美國疾病管制與預防中心 (CDC) 主任 Julie Gerberding 博士向國會提交的未經編輯的證詞原件長達 14 頁，但白宮管理和預算辦公室對最終版本進行了編輯。到只有六頁。

科學家和公共衛生組織稱此舉「令人沮喪」、「可怕」和「令人震驚」。這些編輯基本上刪除了所有將氣候變遷視為公共衛生問題的部分，包括食源性疾病和水源性疾病增加的風險、極端天氣事件惡化、空氣污染惡化以及熱壓力對人類的影響。

科學家譴責全球暖化報告的“編輯”
公共衛生專家稱編輯代表了對科學的審查

[馬丁]

Altnet 上有趣的訪談記錄；包括比爾麥基本 (Bill McKibben) http://www.stepitup2007.org 說：

引用：

[關於野火現在在加州部分地區肆虐：]當我們開始改變我們所居住的星球的基本物理和化學時，我們會越來越多地看到這種災難。昨天領導這場真正勇敢救援行動的一位人士表示，聖地牙哥一位當局表示，這是至少九十年來最乾旱的一次。天氣很乾燥，因為天氣非常炎熱，而且下雨不多。這些只是世界上那個地區的條件，所有模型都表明，當你開始升高溫度時，就會發生這種情況。
…
將其稱為“全球暖化”是正確的，但幾乎是用詞不當。我們真正在做的是為一個系統添加大量的能量，而這些能量以各種方式表現出來：更多的蒸發、更多的降水、更高的風速、整個北極和每個冰川系統的冰層快速融化我們知道的，不斷的。

你知道，我們曾經認為距離真正的緊急情況還有一兩年的時間。這就是二十年前我寫《自然的終結》時我們會說的話。現在，我們明白，模型清楚地表明，地球比我們想像的更平衡。到目前為止，我們所做的一切已經足以讓地球上的每個物理系統都失去平衡。

我們現在奮鬥的目標不是阻止全球暖化。全球將會出現一定程度的暖化；已經有了。我們現在正在努力爭取的是，防止全球暖化這個悲慘而困難的世紀演變成一場徹底的災難，在未來的億萬年裡改寫這個星球的地質和生物學。

野火在So嗎？加州與全球暖化有關？

[馬丁]

來自衛報：

引用：

一項研究表明，氣候變遷導致的全球氣溫上升可能引發動植物的大規模滅絕。儘管人類可能會在這樣的事件中倖存下來，但世界上一半的物種可能會被消滅。

約克大學和利茲大學的科學家研究了過去 5.2 億年（幾乎整個化石記錄）之間的氣候與生物多樣性之間的關係，並首次發現了兩者之間的關聯。當地球溫度處於「溫室」氣候階段時，他們發現滅絕率相對較高。相反，在較涼爽的“冰室”條件下，生物多樣性增加。

今天發表在《英國皇家學會學報 B》上的研究結果表明，人為氣候變遷導致地球溫度迅速上升的預測可能會對生物多樣性產生類似的影響。

約克大學人口生態學家、該研究論文的作者之一彼得·梅休表示：「我們的研究結果提供了第一個明確的證據，表明全球氣候可以以簡單而一致的方式解釋化石記錄的巨大變化。如果我們的結果適用於當前的變暖——其幅度與地球氣候的長期波動相當——則表明物種滅絕將會增加。”

暖化可能會消滅一半的物種

[馬丁]

More grim news, in Scientific American website:

引用：

The world may finally acknowledge that global warming is a major environmental hazard. But new research shows that reducing the main greenhouse gas behind it may be even more difficult than previously believed. The reason: the world’s oceans and forests, which scientists were counting on to help hold off catastrophic rises in carbon dioxide, are already so full of CO2 that they are losing their ability to absorb this climate change culprit.

“For every ton of CO2 emitted [into] the atmosphere, the natural sinks are removing less carbon than before,” says biologist Josep “Pep” Canadell, executive director of the Global Carbon Project—an Australia–based research consortium devoted to analyzing the pollution behind global warming. “This trend will continue into the future.”

Specifically, oceans and plant growth absorbed only around 540 kilograms per metric ton (1,190 pounds per short ton) of the CO2 produced in 2006, compared with 600 kilograms per metric ton (1,322 pounds per short ton) in 2000. Coupled with an emissions growth rate of 3.3 percent—triple the growth rate of the 1990s—the atmospheric burden is now rising by nearly two parts per million of CO2 a year, the fastest growth rate since 1850, the international team of researchers reports in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA.

Climate Change Pollution Rising—Thanks to Overwhelmed Oceans and Plants

[馬丁]

Newsbonkers (err, Newsbusters) perhaps a perennial place of silliness re global warming: never mind science, let’s try n blast liberals. Tho complains of liberal bias in (US) media, got a couple of items appreciating a tv report trotting out stale arguments and same old scientists (err, Timothy Ball as a climate change expert? puhleaze, good for Ballocks is all), and arguing climate change is a none issue. In one item, mysteriously says: "Despite recent developments, man can’t control the weather, much less the climate. " Err, Hello – we’re not talking about controlling the climate; this is about changing it adversely, by accident. Got some posters who might be trying to be comedians, or perhaps are serious, with things like:

引用：

You have to watch these liberals when they talk about the children. It’s obvious they’ve found a way to indoctrinate them, to their way of thinking, and it’s going to be difficult to make them look at the truth. … On this issue, we’re going to have to depend on foreign countries to bring us the truth.

– and which foreign countries might these be, what with the US being one of most backwards nations re climate change? North Korea, perhaps? see this and other daftness at: John Stossel Questions Inconvenient Truths on MSM View of Global Warming

[馬丁]

並不是很明顯這是一個瀕臨滅絕的物種，但在美國新英格蘭地區看到了進一步的變化跡象，現在看到秋天的樹木顏色變得更加暗淡。旅遊業或許會受到影響；而且也提到重新真菌能夠攻擊更多。

引用：

森林覆蓋的山坡通常充滿紅色、橙色和黃色，近年來才勉強顯露出它們的顏色，許多樹木從夏末的暗綠色直接變成深秋的鐵鏽棕色，幾乎沒有停止過更明亮的色調。佛蒙特州本地人、佛蒙特大學植物生物學家湯姆·沃格曼 (Tom Vogelmann) 說：“現在已經完全不同了。”他說秋天變得太溫暖，無法呈現新英格蘭最豐富的色彩。根據國家氣象局的數據，過去四年中，每年 9 月和 10 月，伯靈頓的氣溫都高於 30 年平均水平，但 2004 年 10 月除外，當時的氣溫低於平均 0.2 度。 ……溫暖的秋季和冬季對侵襲某些樹木的真菌很有利，特別是提供最耀眼顏色的紅楓和糖楓。新罕布夏大學林業教授巴里洛克說：“葉子會脫落，但不會變成橙色、黃色或紅色。它們只是從綠色變成棕色。”

氣候變遷導致樹葉褪色

[馬丁]

引用：

今年夏季和秋季，世界上約 10% 的巴利阿里海鷗造訪了英國近海水域，僅在康沃爾郡 Land's End 附近的一個觀察點就記錄到了 1,200 多隻鳥類。
…
這項調查以英國皇家學會期刊《生物學快報》最近發表的新研究為基礎，該研究強調全球暖化是英國巴利阿里海鷗目擊事件激增的關鍵驅動因素。

Wynn博士及其同事展示了東北大西洋海面溫度在1990年代中期如何上升了攝氏0.6度，從而引發了巴利阿里海鷗的獵物魚類以及以此為食的鳥類向北轉移。

「就在20年前，巴利阿里海鷗還很少出現在西南水域，但現在在英國各地的海岬上經常能看到它們的蹤跡。自 2003 年以來，我們甚至開始看到鳥類在康沃爾郡和錫利群島附近度過整個冬天，這是與冬季海水溫度升高有關的全新現象，」韋恩博士說。
…
韋恩博士補充說：「氣候變遷通常被認為是未來的威脅，但對我們海洋動物來說，現實是它現在正在發生。處於食物鏈頂端的物種必須非常迅速地做出反應才能生存，如果失敗，有些物種將被推向滅絕。”

氣候變遷導致瀕臨滅絕的海鳥進入英國水域

[馬丁]

The Conservative Voice – a US website – carries one of the battiest articles by a skeptic I’ve seen yet. Attempts to attack Al Gore, but just looks seriously off-kilter. Includes guff like:

引用：

Gore is an embarrassment to the nation and should be recognized for being a despotic fool not someone who promoted the cause of peace. … Al Gore is a lying demagogue. Only fools like the mainstream media and left wing Marxist idiots would believe such a brain-dead imbecile or a shrewd conniving political exploiter. Global warming is a fool’s folly. Al, “We the People” are not idiots. … Folks, carbon gases and man causing global warming just ain’t so regardless how many people say it is. We the People will suffer greatly if we don’t realize what the Al Gore global warming agenda really is. Gore is promoting a communist one world order through international taxation and control over nation states. It will destroy us.

The article is peppered with quotes, including from Adolf Hitler and fellow Nazi Paul Joseph Goebbels – and, bizarrely, Carl Sagan. Sagan quoted saying, “One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we’ve been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We’re no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It is simply too painful to acknowledge — even to ourselves — that we’ve been so credulous.” – Freudian slip by the article writer? – as Carl Sagan was among the first scientists to warn of the perils of global warming, and our writer clearly a bamboozled chap. Lest you want to read this codswallop, it’s at: Al Gore’s Global Warming Lies

[馬丁]

另一篇關於戈爾和他的諾貝爾獎的平衡文章，發表在《芝加哥先驅論壇報》上；包括：

引用：

阿爾·戈爾 (Al Gore) 2001 年卸任時，關於全球暖化的科學共識與今天有很大不同。

一些科學家對人類活動對全球氣溫影響的疑慮在過去幾年中大部分已經消失。戈爾在電影《難以忽視的真相》中對氣候事實的敘述存在一些缺陷，但大多數專家都認為他在最重要的一點上是正確的：地球正在走向危險的溫暖氣候，而溫室氣體的釋放正在發揮關鍵作用。
…
麻省理工學院大氣科學家克里‧伊曼紐表示，他對高爾的做法有著複雜的感受。伊曼紐爾說，雖然戈爾幫助說服公眾認真對待氣候變化，但他的電影包含“一些讓氣候科學家畏縮的誇張”，
…

麻薩諸塞州海洋生物實驗室生態系統中心主任傑瑞‧梅利洛（Jerry Melillo）說：「其中有許多科學道理讓人難以反駁。」他曾幫忙撰寫政府間氣候變遷專門委員會的報告。

科學支持戈爾的前提

[馬丁]

高爾與印度科學家拉金德拉·帕喬裡擔任主席的聯合國政府間氣候變遷專門委員會（IPCC）共同榮獲諾貝爾和平獎。

恭喜他們兩人！

– 看到酸葡萄心理和右翼白痴的狙擊是多麼令人難過；現在甚至懶得連結到這些東西

[馬丁]

引用：

週三發布的一項研究稱，人為的全球暖化正在推高濕度水平，降雨模式可能會發生變化或加強，熱帶風暴加劇，人類健康可能會受到熱應激的影響。

英國科學家發表的論文稱，從 1976 年到 2004 年，當世界平均表面溫度上升 0.49 攝氏度（0.9 華氏度）時，全球大氣水蒸氣含量上升了 2.2%。
…
吉列說，水蒸氣是全球暖化方程式中的「正回饋」——用科學術語來說是一個惡性循環。

蒸氣是一種溫室氣體，這意味著就像燃燒化石燃料造成的碳污染一樣，它會在大氣中捕獲太陽熱量，從而加劇暖化效應，從而導致濕度惡化。

研究稱全球暖化導致濕度水平升高

[馬丁]

喬治「沃默」布希在歷史上不會留下好印象，尤其是他的環境記錄。 《亞特蘭大憲法報》發表了一篇簡短但嚴厲的文章，講述了布希及其搖搖欲墜的軟弱情緒的重新升溫。包括：

引用：

在他的任期內，總統首先試圖否認越來越多的全球暖化的科學證據。後來，當否認不再可能時，他試圖淡化其重要性。即使現在，採取行動的必要性就像冰川融化一樣明顯，他仍然否認應對這項挑戰的責任。 ……作為 2000 年的候選人，布希支持 1997 年關於氣候變遷的《京都議定書》，並在競選過程中承諾將碳排放視為污染物。然而，當選後，他變成了一個冷嘲熱諷的全球暖化懷疑論者，然後變成了一個冷漠的笨手笨腳的人。他領導的國家產生了全球 25% 的溫室氣體，但拒絕在解決這個問題方面發揮決定性的領導作用。不幸的是，全球暖化的速度比總統快得多，也比科學家最初預測的快得多。

生命和全球暖化問題

布希總統忽冷忽熱的做法推遲了削減有害氣體的策略

[馬丁]

引用：

數千隻海像出現在阿拉斯加西北海岸，自然資源保護主義者稱這是全球暖化導致北極海冰融化的嚴重後果。阿拉斯加的海象，尤其是繁殖中的雌性海象，在夏季和秋季通常出現在北極冰層上。但有紀錄以來最低的夏季冰蓋使海冰遠離外大陸棚以北，外大陸棚是白令海和楚科奇海淺層、生物豐富的海底大陸棚。海像以蛤、蝸牛和其他海底生物為食。考慮到是在 630 英尺潛水範圍之外的水面上的冰平台還是岸上的聚集點之間進行選擇，成千上萬的海象選擇了阿拉斯加的岩石海灘。 「在我看來，動物正在改變分佈以尋找獵物，」聯邦海洋哺乳動物委員會執行董事蒂姆·雷根說。 “最大的問題是它們是否能夠在它們尋找的區域找到足夠的獵物。”根據科羅拉多大學博爾德分校國家冰雪資料中心的數據，9 月的海冰比 1979 年至 2000 年的長期平均值低 39%。海冰覆蓋面積呈螺旋式下降，可能已經超過了無冰點。高級科學家馬克‧塞雷茲(Mark Serreze) 表示，到2030 年夏季，北冰洋可能會出現無冰狀態。從 7 月開始，數千隻海象放棄了冰袋，前往巴羅和利斯本角之間的聚集點（阿拉斯加海岸線綿延 300 英里的偏遠地區）。

消融的冰層取代了阿拉斯加海象

[馬丁]

來自衛報：

引用：

約翰爵士（英國外交官、聯合國負責人道主義事務的副秘書長）約翰爵士表示：「非洲剛剛發生的洪水是人們記憶中最嚴重的一次。」他對媒體對非洲的關注如此之少表示沮喪。韋斯特正致力於應對他所說的逐漸蔓延的氣候災難。

聯合國警告氣候變遷災難即將來臨

[馬丁]

來自衛報：

引用：

聯合國緊急救援協調員約翰·霍姆斯爵士警告稱，今年全球範圍內發生的洪水、乾旱和風暴數量創歷史新高，這相當於一場氣候變遷「特大災難」。

英國外交官、聯合國負責人道事務的副秘書長約翰爵士表示，全球暖化對人類影響的可怕預測已成為現實。

「我們正在看到氣候變遷的影響。任何年份都可能是反常的，但說實話，模式看起來相當清晰。這就是為什麼我們試圖……說，當然你必須解決減排問題，但這就是此時此地，這已經發生在我們身上，」他說。

為了應對日益惡化的局勢，聯合國人道主義事務協調辦公室（約翰爵士聘用的聯合國秘書處的一部分）今年迄今已發出 13 項緊急「緊急」呼籲。這個數字比 2005 年（之前的紀錄保持者）多了 3 個。

兩年前，奧查處理的國際災難中只有一半與氣候有關；今年，13 項緊急呼籲中除一項外，其餘所有呼籲都與氣候相關。 “

聯合國警告氣候變遷災難即將來臨

[馬丁]

Reply from Now TV:

引用：

感謝您給現在電視發電子郵件。

With regards to your message, we are sorry to learn of your
disappointment to our Cricket Channel. Please be adivsed that your
valuable feedback has already been channeled back to the relevant
department for further review . Rest assured we would use it as
reference to future improvement, and make necessary enhancement to
ensure such quality standard is met.

[馬丁]

I’ve never really liked Bjorn Lomborg, who shot to fame as supposed former environmentalist w claims that should we attempt to combat warming, we’d waste money that could be used to help the world in other ways. Always struck me as being rather like saying well, the house may be on fire but battling the fire will be tough, and would mean we couldn’t do so much work to re-paint the walls and improve the upholstery – and anyway, some people say the fire won’t be too bad. Strikes me, too, as very self important fellow. Already seen his claims re being former environmentalist even dodgier than Timothy Ball’s re being expert on man-made climate change. Knew of new Lomborg book; haven’t even laid eyes on it. Glad to see review in Globe and Mail that slams the book – tho sadly, the idiots who take comfort in Lomborgism will surely like the book, which can help them continue living in fools’ paradise where can drive SUVs and burn and consume and burn without consequence. From the review:

引用：

In high-school biology class, we used to do an experiment with fruit flies. You put flies and food in a jar, screw the top on tight and wait to see what happens as the flies reproduce like mad. The goal is to see at what point the limits of the jar – air, food, space – begin to affect the ability of the fruit flies to exist. At some point, the jar becomes inhospitable and the flies die en masse. If Bjorn Lomborg, Danish author of Cool It: The Skeptical Environmentalist’s Guide to Global Warming, were to write up that high-school experiment, he would focus on the point just before the flies began to hit the limits. He would wax on about how the population of flies had never been stronger, trot out statistics to show how astoundingly well the population had reproduced over time, and gush boyishly about the excellent living conditions in the jar. … he would be correct on carefully selected points of fact, but fatally incorrect about the larger picture, or the meaning of the information he was looking at. This is the trick he plays in Cool It, and it is the same tack he took in The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the Real State of the World (2001). … He’s not a scientist, and the book of science, alas, is closed to him. His work betrays, embarrassingly, that he doesn’t understand biology or how living systems work or any of the basic principles of scientific inquiry. … Lomborg has now proved beyond a doubt that he is incapable of contributing anything of merit to scientific discourse.

The Pollyanna of global warming

[馬丁]

Alternet 有一長串來自美國進步中心的全球暖化的預測。有一些看起來微不足道；最嚴重的。包括：

引用：

向保加利亞妓女短缺問題問好。 「保加利亞的妓院老闆將員工短缺歸咎於全球暖化。他們聲稱他們最好的女孩都在滑雪勝地工作，因為缺雪迫使遊客去尋找其他樂趣。
…
物種消失。世界自然保護聯盟的最新報告稱，世界上至少 40% 的物種正受到威脅…而全球暖化是罪魁禍首之一。
…
格陵蘭島正在融化。格陵蘭島正在以每年 52 立方英里的速度融化——比之前的預測快得多。如果格陵蘭島250萬立方公里的冰全部融化，將導致全球海平面上升7.2米，即超過23英尺。
…
IISS：國際安全的「全球災難」。國際戰略研究所最近進行的一項研究將全球暖化對國際安全的影響比作核戰造成的影響。
…
世界支票簿。塔夫茨大學全球發展與環境研究所的研究發現，到 2100 年，忽視全球暖化最終將造成 $20 兆美元的損失。

全球暖化將改變您生活的 100 種方式

[馬丁]

波浪能似乎很有前途，有助於減少對燃燒化石燃料的依賴。英國廣播公司 (BBC) 報告了將在蘇格蘭啟動的大型測試計畫。

引用：

世界上最大的波浪能項目之一即將在奧克尼群島海岸揭幕。首席部長 Alex Salmond 將在斯特羅姆內斯的歐洲海洋能源中心 (EMEC) 開設新的潮汐能測試設施。該場地將安裝四個波浪能轉換器，可為 2,000 戶家庭發電。據說該中心是世界上第一個提供專用測試設施的中心。

計畫利用奧克尼群島波浪能

[馬丁]

在寫給《自然》的信中，詹姆斯·洛夫洛克（蓋亞假說）和克里斯·拉普利建議使用：

引用：

自由漂浮或繫留的垂直管道，以增加溫躍層以下營養豐富的水域與海洋表面相對貧瘠的水域的混合…。將水泵入管道（例如，長 100 至 200 公尺、直徑 10 公尺、下端有一個單向瓣閥，透過波浪運動進行泵水）會給地表水中的藻類施肥並促進它們繁殖。這將抽出二氧化碳並產生二甲硫醚，這是形成反射陽光的雲的原子核的前體。

海洋管道可以幫助地球自我修復
國家地理網站上的文章稱，他們已經完成了實驗室實驗，表明這可能是可行的，現在有贊助商開始小規模試驗。
但是，存在著許多不確定性——管道可能會在過程開始時呼出二氧化碳，然後可能會擾亂海洋循環並影響海洋生物。
巨型海洋管道被提議解決全球暖化問題

[馬丁]

儘管某些能源產業類型和盟友/近盟友不斷炮製虛假訊息，但就連喬治布希也被說服全球暖化是一個真正的問題，但仍然認為最好是空談而不是採取行動。

路透社的時間表很短，顯示了他的觀點如何改變。包括：

引用：

2001年6月11日－布希在歐洲之行前不久表示，目前還不確定全球暖化有多少是由人類造成的，並承諾利用科學和外交手段來應對這一問題。
…
2002年6月4日－布希與美國環保署向聯合國提交的全球暖化負面影響的報告保持距離，稱這是「官僚主義」的空話。
…
2007年1月23日－布希在國情咨文演說中首次提及全球暖化，並表示解決這個問題的關鍵在於技術進步和使用乙醇等再生燃料。

FACTBOX-布希不斷演變的全球暖化政策

[馬丁]

Really, many a global warming "skeptic" should be more laughable than treated as if serious people. Retired Canadian professor Timothy Ball makes a strong bid for being among the more comical denialists.

Heck, I have a thread here suggesting Comical Ali has been recruited to say global warming isn't real, but a few minutes reading about Timothy Ball and find he almost outdoes Comical Ali.

I just noticed Timothy Ball's name in news item on National Geographic; this includes:

引用：

Timothy Ball chairs the Scientific Advisory Committee for the Natural Resources Stewardship Project, a federally incorporated nonprofit in Canada. He says his skepticism is based on assumptions about global warming that have never been confirmed. "In this case it is assumed carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas that will trap heat in the atmosphere, that the levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide will increase because of human industrial activity and specifically the burning of fossil fuels, and that atmospheric carbon dioxide will double," he said. Ball said that this hypothesis became fact before the research had begun, "because it fit a political agenda and the views of the environmentalists."

全球暖化的不作為比解決方案的成本更高？

Reading this, looked like some Ballocks in these quotes; including the very strange "it is assumed that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas that will trap heat in the atmosphere".

Note to ex-Prof Ball – and Nat Geo news team: carbon dioxide is a known greenhouse gas that traps heat in the atmosphere. See, for instance: NCDC:Greenhouse Gases from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Interesting, too, that Ball alleges the greenhouse effect hypothesis had political origins. Yet, read a little and soon find Ball is associated with groups etc funded by oil industry money. One of them dubbed Friends of Science – a name George Orwell could have loved, as questions science change, does not disclose funding sources yet perhaps gets money from oil industry etc. Friends of Science – Wikipedia entry

There's strong article by Charles Montgomery, which first appeared in the Globe and Mail, centred on Timothy Ball. Includes:

引用：

Leaders throughout Europe have accepted the IPCC position on climate change, and have been looking for ways to take collective action, primarily via the Kyoto Accord. Yet North Americans have lagged behind, hamstrung by a lingering debate in the media and among politicians about climate science. … who are the donors? No one will say. "[The money's] not exclusively from the oil and gas industry," says Prof. Cooper. "It's also from foundations and individuals. I can't tell you the names of those companies, or the foundations for that matter, or the individuals."

When pushed in another interview, however, Prof. Cooper admits, "There were some oil companies." [PR Company boss James Hoggan, who has couple of people investigating skeptics' funding]: 'I don't think that the people who are involved in this should be able to get away with it. My goal is to find out as much as we can about these people and make it public. Who are they? Who is paying them? What motivates them? How is it they can sleep at night?" '

Mr. Cool Nurturing doubt about climate change is big business

See also brief Bio of Ball, w some of his Ballocks, on DeSmogBlog. Dr. Tim Ball: The Lie that Just Won't Die

From here and other info, soon find he can't even get basic facts about himself right, let alone re warming: has claimed to have been a professor for 32 year – true figure, 8 years; and to have the first PhD in climatology, when others had such PhDs before him: and his PhD in science/geography.

Plus, maybe only four papers published in peer reviewed journals; none dealing with human impacts on climate; none since he retired in 1996. Hardly seems the right guy, then, to make assertions like "The majority of the scientists who are on the Kyoto and global warming bandwagon know nothing about the science…"

Err, Doc Ball – do you happen to have a mirror handy? – look in it and you might recognise yourself here.

Update, 21 January 2011: ex-Prof Ball has been peddling more twaddle, in Canada Free Press – which seems a bastion of denialism, yet has clearly found Ball proved too outlandish even for this stance:

引用：

On January 10, 2011, Canada Free Press began publishing on this website an article by Dr. Tim Ball entitled “Corruption of Climate Change Has Created 30 Lost Years” which contained untrue and disparaging statements about Dr. Andrew Weaver, who is a professor in the School of Earth and Ocean Sciences at the University of Victoria, British Columbia.

Contrary to what was stated in Dr. Ball’s article, Dr. Weaver: (1) never announced he will not participate in the next IPCC; (2) never said that the IPCC chairman should resign; (3) never called for the IPCC’s approach to science to be overhauled; and (4) did not begin withdrawing from the IPCC in January 2010. 

As a result of a nomination process that began in January, 2010, Dr. Weaver became a Lead Author for Chapter 12: “Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility” of the Working Group I contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC.”  That work began in May, 2010.  Dr. Ball’s article failed to mention these facts although they are publicly-available.

Dr. Tim Ball also wrongly suggested that Dr. Weaver tried to interfere with his presentation at the University of Victoria by having his students deter people from attending and heckling him during the talk.  CFP accepts without reservation there is no basis for such allegations. 

CFP also wishes to dissociate itself from any suggestion that Dr. Weaver “knows very little about climate science.”  We entirely accept that he has a well-deserved international reputation as a climate scientist and that Dr. Ball’s attack on his credentials is unjustified.

CFP sincerely apologizes to Dr. Weaver and expresses regret for the embarrassment and distress caused by the unfounded allegations in the article by Dr. Ball.

Apology to Dr. Andrew Weaver

Yikes! I haven't seen original article, but seems only thing Ball got right in his piece was Dr Weaver's name!

[馬丁]

在國家地理上看到新聞後，將其發送給他們；也許不言自明：

引用：

在有關氣候變遷不作為和成本的文章中，我相信您已經陷入了新聞業據稱需要平衡的陷阱。

在引用 Timothy Ball 的話時，你是否檢查過他和 NSRC：
請參閱 Ball 的 DeSmogBlog 簡介，說：
http://www.desmogblog.com/node/1272
什麼樣的「專家」發表的論文只能查到4篇；過去 11 年沒有原創性研究，儘管多產「流行」文章，並且是在公開資金和/或與石油行業資金有密切聯繫的團體中？

也許在新聞中，也可以有「平衡」項目的重新演化，板塊構造。
除了這些之外，受到威脅的進口要少得多。

至於新聞業，「平衡」——本質上是虛假的——並不總是發生。我們是否能在戀童癖問題上取得平衡（我相信很少人認為這是可以的）？

國家地理新聞報道位於：
全球暖化的不作為比解決方案的成本更高？

[作者]

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