馬丁

[馬丁]

嗨，吉比迪：

Thanks for follow-up post.
No, I’ve no DOC contacts, though I think it extremely unlikely flu was involved here – partly as these were songbirds (and bird flu mainly infects waterfowl; then, huge distance from the very few known outbreaks in wild birds).

I posted this to an Agonist thread on species infected by bird flu – starting to get annoyed with the cavalier blame birds attitude prevailing there (with Niman in his office working thro DNA tests and pronouncing on “the story”, when only has v partial info).

引用：

Ah yes, those asymptomatic wild birds [Niman suggests are spreading bird flu] no one has found [if enough asmptomatic birds flying about with this very nasty strain of bird fly, there would surely be plenty of other birds dying]

Never mind that scientists have tested thousands of apparently healthy wild birds for h5n1 here in HK, not found it. (Found in a very few dead wild birds, for sure; and peregrines evidently from captivity; mostly in ornamental birds here – even flamingos, black swans across in Shenzhen. [which migrate about as much as a household pet])

But, birds die some place in the world, and here on the Agonist, it’s gotta be bird flu, right? Obvious really. [It can’t be that with ocean changes, shearwaters can starve – that’s ridiculous eh? etc etc]

(And yes, reports from Russia now are worrisome.)

Real bogey man is farming – intensive farming; helped spawn the S. suis outbreaks in Sichuan, too. Add SARS to that, and whatever else.

After a few responses, posted:

引用：

Those Penfold Park waterfowl were ornamental, just as the flamingos at same time.

Like zoo birds. (Anyone trying to suggest the Thailand zoo tigers might be spreading bird flu?” Wouldn’t surprise me here on the Agonist)
A wild egret or two at Penfold Park also died of bird flu; in hk, most little egrets are resident, so may well have been just collateral damage.

At same time, none of the thousands of waterbirds at nearby Deep Bay/Mai Po wetland affected. none But hey, who cares about such things?

Yes, Russian cases might be from migratory birds; but might be, despite definite pronouncements from people sitting at computers in US.
Shearwaters with bird flu notions just barmy, without testing/proof.

So far, other purported spreads by wild birds looking bad.
And of course govts ready to blame wild birds. Who wants to really finger farms? (When HK authors showed problems in farms – inc continuing h5n1 in se China poultry – it was said to be releasing state secrets, and research curtailed.
You think that if wild birds really were behind it, there’d be such secrecey and lack of info sharing? )

Bah! – real science would be good here.
Sadly wanting, even from major organisations (WHO, say – but not an animal health organisation; rather seems int organisation for animal health – OIE – is content to take officials’ comments as gospel, never mind science; or too timid to question? [after email from WHO spokesperson, I tried emailing OIE, no response]).

Post edited by: martin, at: 2005/08/08 04:19

[馬丁]

嗨，吉比迪：

Thanks for the post – certainly welcome, tho I’d be sceptical re such a cure (not that I’ve a medical background; just seems flu is tough to cure/guard against – tho perhaps the concoction’s a good health tonic that helps immune systems).

馬丁

[馬丁]

Hi Bird Lover:

謝謝你的貼文。
I’d welcome more posts, especially re wild birds and bird flu. (Seems Agonist is weighted towards birds being guilty of spreading bird flu around, too often without even evidence of guilt. [Like shearwaters dying off US coast – seems to be from lack of food, after changes in ocean currents and temperatures.])

馬丁

[馬丁]

New page on Avian influenza or bird flu and wild birds has good summary, with focus on Qinghai Lake birds, esp Bar-headed Goose – which winters across much of India.

[馬丁]

news coming in of mystery illness infecting at least 20 farmers in Sichuan; nine dead so far. Don’t yet know it’s bird flu. Yet, no sooner had I posted to Agonist bulletin board a message including: "I guess some folk will now look to see re wild birds moving from Qinghai." – than I see that Henry Niman, at Recombinomics, already suggesting wild birds from Qinghai are responsible. Says it’s snowed at Qinghai already, and birds moving out he figures – never mind that the infected farmers are in Sichuan basin, which is not a migration/wintering area for Qinghai birds like bar-headed geese. (Again, who needs to worry about facts getting in the way of a good story? Sadly, not Niman. :blink: ) I also posted: "Maybe, instead, starting to see there was truth in notions that vaccinating poutry can lead to silent epidemics, and new virus strains. (extra note: This based partly on assumption the Sichuan outbreak is bird flu – which is by no means certain.)

– and see re Vietnam to start vaccinating poultry, even tho still concerns about this:

引用：

Bird flu vaccines in poultry are controversial. Flu can sometimes spread silently among vaccinated birds, both evading detection and coming under novel selection pressures that can produce new strains. The current virulent strain of H5N1 emerged among vaccinated poultry in China.

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[馬丁]

Over on the Agonist bulletin board, where it seems conspiracy theories are running amok, and the sky’s about to fall in (indeed, back in June I think, the big pandemic was supposed to be underway already; there may indeed be a major pandemic sometime, but Agonist folk may by then have cried "wolf" too often for that board to be reliable), there’s now a thread for: Qinghai Lake Waterfowl Tracking

Already, for some reason, has info on migrations of Mallard and Canada Geese in North America, with one soul saying he’d watch for their southward progress. V little, by contrast, re actual migrations of Qinghai Lake breeding birds – maybe facts are just too boring. If – IF – the Qinghai bird flu outbreak indeed burns out (seems past peak) before birds migrate south, and migrants are healthy, maybe not asymptomatic carriers – well, I think some folk will be a bit disappointed. But, there will be more red herrings to chase in cyberspace, even as the poultry industry, I suspect, continues nurturing bird flu like a smouldering peat fire.

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