risk analysis for h5n1 bird flu from russia to uk

[Martin W]

The attached is of interest.

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Russia has never before reported an outbreak of HPAI (OIE, 2005a). Previous outbreaks of HPAI (H5N1) in wild waterfowl and migratory birds have been reported in May (domestic poultry) and in June 2005 (waterfowl) in China. Kazakhstan reported an outbreak of AI (H5) in domestic ducks and geese in a village in north-east of the country (Irtysh district, Pavlodar region) at the end of July 2005. Outbreaks in domestic poultry, characterised by high mortality in the affected birds, have often been attributed to contact with wild waterfowl and wild birds.

These events may also indicate that the virus is being spread relatively rapidly and it is tempting to attribute this situation to the geographic dissemination of the virus by migratory waterfowl. However, this must remain questionable because no information is currently available on whether a detailed epidemiological analysis has been carried out to determine if this is the case.

No information is currently available on whether other potential causes of death of wild waterfowl or migratory birds (e.g. other diseases, a natural die-off or a natural ecological impact) have been excluded. It is also possible that wild birds were infected conventionally at source with H5N1 (China, Russia) or H5 (Kazakhstan) or from locally infected poultry that has either gone undetected or unreported. Illegal trade would also have to be considered.

Post edited by: martin, at: 2005/08/19 06:40

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