Reply To: Global warming is well underway


B. N. Goswami of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology and his colleagues studied rain gauge data from 1,803 stations scattered throughout central India from 1951 to 2000.

“Heavy and very heavy rain events over central India have increased significantly since the 1950s,” Goswami notes. “Also, the magnitude of the very heavy events in a given year has shown a clear increasing trend.”

“As the weak and moderate events decrease, their contribution to the mean decreased while the increasing number of heavy and very heavy events make an increasing contribution to the mean,” Goswami explains. “These two opposing contributions roughly balance each other and keep the mean unchanged.”
But even though the average has not changed, the potential for extreme downpours–and hence flooding and other ills–has, jumping 10 percent and still rising. This is an important and increasing risk going forward, according to the researchers. The number of strong tropical cyclones continues to increase as well, linked perhaps to the gradual increase in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures. “The results are consistent with what may be expected under global warming,” Goswami adds.

When It Warms, It Pours: Climate Change Produces Fewer but More Extreme Monsoon Rains
Climate change appears to be increasing the risk of monsoon flooding on the Indian subcontinent