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尼日利亞北部農場的雞剛檢測出 H5N1 病毒呈陽性。野生鳥類可能因將 H5N1 病毒傳播到奈及利亞而受到指責。不管怎樣，尼日利亞並不是秋季前感染 H5N1 病毒地區的鴨子的（主要）目的地。應該在這裡調查走私家禽的情況。
引用：高關稅會刺激人們避免繳納關稅。常見的非法行為包括低開發票、「往返」外匯和走私…當冷凍雞肉等特定產品的非法、無證進口量超過合法進口量時（這是在尼日利亞禁止雞肉進口之前；對雞的數量可能會更高，因為如果是的話，就會鼓勵走私）籠中受感染的雞；所以肯定不太可能與外界接觸，包括野生鳥類。
引用：與卡杜納州接壤的卡諾州也報告有數千隻鳥類死亡。聯邦衛生部和農業部尚未提供有關死亡數量或具體死亡地區的資訊。在卡諾市，家禽養殖戶試圖以低於正常價格一半的價格出售雞肉，其中包括來自鳥類死亡的農場的雞肉。 「我很困惑。昨天我在我的小農場裡失去了10 隻鳥，我無法承受失去更多的鳥，所以我來到市場以如此荒謬的價格處理我的許多鳥，」伊斯梅爾·穆薩說。http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/02/08/health/main1294381.shtml – 那麼，廉價的雞肉是否可能被走私到尼日利亞？
為了我的進一步閱讀和個人啟發......，
在哪裡可以找到已知候鳥飛行路徑的簡潔、準確的描述？
我同意，需要對候鳥如何導致這場流行病進行更明智的討論。僅僅一攬子聲明將責任歸咎於野生鳥類是不夠的。
我還認為家禽、動物園、鬥毆或寵物鳥貿易可能無法回答整個問題。
從邏輯上講，病毒的傳播路徑似乎如此之多，以至於很難從猜測中分離出真相。追蹤一種病毒的譜系，從中國某個不起眼的農場到尼日利亞的一個類似農場，是一件很有趣的事情。有多少隻雞打噴嚏、靴子糞便污染、野鳥啄食、飛行時間等等，等，都參與其中。
尼日利亞有點偏僻，但有人說它可能是，或者正在遷徙路線上。就說我來自密蘇裡州，我需要親自看看......，
謝謝，
氮
據我所知，沒有現成的來源（昨天科學記者問了這個問題；他研究了一些遷徙路線等，但同樣沒有找到理想的資訊來源）。我之前在電子郵件中向同一個雜誌提供了關於飛行路線的部分答案，我將其發佈到線程中： 遷徙飛行路線 V 在此簡單介紹一下（我將在該線程中添加更多內容）：
尼日利亞正處於遷徙飛行路線上，但對於來自歐洲的鳥類來說，即在鳥類遷徙之前已知存在 H5N1 的地區以西。地球上很少有土地不在飛行路線上。您居住在美國，因此您位於飛行路線上或附近（密蘇裡州上空的密度比許多地方更高）。野生鳥類可能會在您的房子上空遷徙。但您不在來自已知存在 H5N1 地區的鳥類的飛行路線上
來自韓國鳥類協會 Nial Moores 的電子郵件：
據世界鳥類家族稱，像加加尼這樣的物種可以根據濕地的情況將越冬地從印度轉移到東非。然而，正如馬丁所說，最合乎邏輯的是，加加尼從西歐遷徙到西非，大約在十月離開歐洲，並在三月下旬返回。
…這是正確的嗎：這次最新的疫情發生在仲冬時節的西非，距離西歐（沒有 H5N1 的地區）野鳥遷徙到那裡幾個月後；在養雞場。那些認為野鳥是傳播原因的人應該首先確定（有支持數據）哪些物種是罪魁禍首（來自土耳其等受影響地區的鳥類？？？，在一月下旬抵達尼日利亞，病毒毒性如此之大：是哪個物種？沒有）；解釋為什麼那裡沒有發現野生鳥類的爆發（可能嗎？）；並解釋野鳥如何感染家禽的確切機制（可能？）。
家禽和籠養禽類的集中地一次又一次被證明是 H5N1 病毒的病毒工廠，尼日利亞一直在提高家禽產量，目標是成為淨出口國。至少到 2002 年，當地生產商就對非法家禽進口/貿易的數量感到擔憂（請參閱下面的 URL）。
家禽的大規模集中往往會導致環境污染（徑流和糞便堆積），並為非遷徙食腐野生鳥類的感染提供了唯一合理的假設。野鴨以某種方式飛進雞圈，在不被發現的情況下在那裡排泄，從而感染可憐的家禽，然後再次飛走，這應該更合理嗎？
在35 年的觀鳥生涯中，我曾經在散養雞圈中見過一隻野鴨——在韓國的一個近海島嶼上，那裡沒有其他鴨子棲息地，也不靠近一些濕地，那裡有大量的天然食物可供濕地物種使用沒有被追殺的風險。這完全不符合常識，也沒有任何證據支持──所以為什麼在先考慮家禽流動、其次考慮籠養鳥類貿易之前就開始做出這樣的假設呢？
也要重複一遍，可悲的是，哪裡有人能證明這是野鳥呢？ 大多數國家都有候鳥；一年中的任何時候都有鳥類遷徙。因此，那些想要相信 H5N1 是透過野鳥傳播到非洲（或其他地方）的人很容易找到一些東西來說服自己——無論是否提供相反的證據。
因此，每次向這些人重複提供詳細信息，然後這些建議幾乎被忽視，原來的故事寫成，原來的台詞被忽視，甚至有時還評論說鳥類保護主義者過於防禦性，這似乎是浪費時間。看到真相。這是整個傳奇令人失望和沮喪的很大一部分。
請讓我看看尼日利亞感染 HPAI H5N1 的無症狀加加尼；讓我看看其他地方其他受感染的加加尼；讓我看看加加尼與雞的接觸，然後我保證我會花時間為你尋找有關加加尼運動的數據。否則，最好先看看家禽和籠養鳥類貿易 -
關於貿易的一般說明：
http://www.unescap.org/tid/tisnet/news505.asp
使用尼日利亞家禽進口一詞進行Google搜索
http://64.233.179.104/search?q=cache:HNGrXnqkv5IJ:www.ams.usda.gov/poultry/mncs/International/2002Reports/x121002.pdf+Nigeria+Poultry+Import&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=1
其中談到非法進口。中國和奈及利亞有許多貿易聯繫，最近貿易措施也有所加強。尼日利亞與許多其他國家有貿易等等。消除這些，然後讓我們談談野生鳥類在傳播到非洲方面的假設作用。
正如我在“遷移路線”帖子中提到的，需要時間來混合受感染的人群
看起來所需的時間約為數年。即，允許需要的混合的幾個遷移週期。
看來家禽走私罪魁禍首可能更大。家禽或寵物鳥？
問候，
氮
嗨尼爾：
好吧，我認為我們處於猜測的境地——尼日利亞的疫情是新的。
但我懷疑是家禽；尼日利亞為防範 H5N1 病毒而限製家禽進口，諷刺的是，這或許反而增加了對走私鳥類的需求。
（這次爆發是在電池場；如果他們不能滿足所有需求，可能會轉向外部來源。）需要更多資訊。
但對於蔓延到中國西北部，從俄羅斯到歐洲東部，我對家禽貿易/走私更有信心（甚至莫斯科動物園的首席獸醫也說他認為是走私）。馬丁
引用：2 月10 日（彭博）—尼日利亞指責走私者造成了禽流感感染，禽流感感染已蔓延到至少四個農場，希臘和保加利亞當局正在調查致命H5N1 病毒株可能爆發的可能性，這也是歐盟首次出現這種病毒株。農業部長阿達穆·貝洛昨天表示，「寵物和鳥類的非法進口商和走私者的活動」將病毒帶到了奈及利亞，同時在另外三個農場也發現了該病毒。世界動物衛生組織表示，這種疾病最有可能是由候鳥傳播的，一個月前在奈及利亞爆發的首次疫情導致 4 萬隻家禽死亡。
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=a5Yrp7T2ICr4&refer=top_world_news
我們需要您在我們的新公告板上提供這方面的專業知識：
相當奇怪的情況，《新科學家》雜誌的黛博拉·麥肯齊 (Deborah MacKenzie) – 現在熱衷於指責野鳥傳播 H5N1 病毒（另見帖子） 新科學家狡猾的 H5N1 病毒傳播到歐洲 – 自信地寫道，野鴨將 H5N1 病毒攜帶到尼日利亞，儘管（迄今為止）非洲還沒有一隻野鳥的 H5N1 病毒檢測結果呈陽性。
韓國鳥類協會的尼爾·穆爾斯（Nial Moores）向黛博拉（Deborah）發送了一封電子郵件，對此提出質疑；抄送我，黛博拉回覆了我，同樣將我也包括在收件人之列。她發來的一封有趣的電子郵件——確實有可能來自夏季 H5N1 襲擊地區的鴨子可能已經抵達尼日利亞過冬。
但是，這是我寄給她的電子郵件：
感謝您的電子郵件；很高興您願意詳細了解這一點。然而，你的論點並不成立。而且，奇怪的是，你忽略了從伊朗東部到日本（北亞大部分水鳥都在那裡過冬）的一大片土地上沒有 H5N1 病毒，但候鳥濕地鳥類卻沒有爆發疫情。香港是這裡的一個著名地點：有大約50,000 只水鳥，包括針尾鳥（巨加尼在遷徙時經過）：在超過16,000 只水鳥中，沒有一隻健康的野生鳥類檢測呈陽性[根據一些報道；我認為 PNAS 出於某種原因給了 13,000，無需重新檢查。] 目前在鳥類、公司家禽中感染 H5N1；可能是農曆新年家禽需求增加之後；提到這一點，有報告指出尼日利亞的走私活動在朝覲期間可能會增加。香港正處於中國南方移民的十字路口，也是 H5N1 疫情的中心。鳥類中有 H5N1 病毒，包括兩個城市公園（觀賞水禽，至少 2 隻野生小白鷺，可能是居民）。所以，漫不經心地忽視並不容易。此外，PNAS 論文總體上強烈反對野生鳥類傳播 H5N1 的觀點。見證 H5N1 的區域形式：如果野生鳥類確實可以攜帶並引入家禽（而且很容易做到），為什麼我們會看到這些？說家禽貿易是短距離傳播，而野鳥貿易是遠距離傳播，這似乎是一種奇怪的邏輯。
存在長途貿易，包括走私——比照來自中國的大量走私家禽抵達義大利。 「人們之所以檢測到病毒的存在，主要是因為如果野鳥接觸到病毒，就會導致家禽爆發疫情」——野鳥接觸家禽嗎？在哪裡？ [也許這確實發生在尼日利亞——但人們在那裡捕獵水鳥，所以可能會認為野生鳥類會盡可能避開人類]“鴨子本身，至少是那些通過遷徙成功的鴨子，不會因此而死亡，所以你不會看到它那樣。” - 可疑的;鴨子會因此而死亡，此外，與它們共享濕地的鳥類也會導致很高的死亡率（在青海非常高）。 「採樣的盛行率非常低，即使有，也不能證明不存在。」青海不需要採樣——病毒的存在已經非常清楚地表明了它的存在。在其他地方，它在野外是稀有或罕見的。一些動物死亡，但需要監測才能找到它們。“流感具有高度傳染性。它在鳥類之間傳播。”啊，現在有一個重要的事情。你提到「流感」——並且做出了這個相當隨意的陳述。定期的野生禽流感確實在水鳥中具有高度傳染性（需要注意的是；季節變化，可能會根據鳥類類型而有所不同）。但是，有證據表明，野生鳥類中的 H5N1 傳染性並不高。青海例外。但除此之外，我們並沒有看到 H5N1 病毒輕易在野生鳥類中傳播。又是香港－在濕地/附近發現了死水鳥，但沒有擴散。 （就在最近，距離後海灣幾公里處一隻小白鷺死了。）蒙古的Erkhel——“這種疾病在野生鳥類中出現了自限性”，研究人員不得不努力尋找它。，然後o只在死鳥泰國openbill中鸛 - 在大量鳥類中只有少數 羅馬尼亞：池塘里受感染的天鵝沒有感染共享池塘的其他水鳥（這是因為沒有死亡，也因為其中一些鳥類進行了測試）
羅馬尼亞天鵝排出少量病毒。韋氏鴨攜帶 H5N1 病毒但不易殺死它們，同樣排泄的量也很少。呼吸道數量較多－但鴨子不易打噴嚏/法式接吻。
“據報道，他們現在就在市場上賣鳥。” – 那麼，您認為其他擁有受感染鳥類或靠近受感染鳥類的人可能會在市場上將它們出售嗎？來自非感染地區的人們。尼日利亞已禁止家禽進口；但國內需求肯定仍然存在。以便宜的價格走私鳥類肯定很有吸引力。
「尤其是 Z 基因型，它導致了東亞幾乎所有商業家禽疫情的爆發」——這就是 Z 基因型。它的變種之一，但它是Z。“三月中國東南部鄱陽湖的鳥類，其中一些遷徙到青海。” – 哪些是這樣遷移的？據我所知，沒有人從鄱陽縣遷移到青海。我研究了一些沿著中國東海岸遷徙的鄱陽冬季鳥類（可能是西伯利亞鶴）——距離青海很遠。 [我問過管一和羅伯特·韋伯斯特，他們說的是哪個物種遷徙了；到目前為止，只講了《候鳥》。對於病毒學來說，細節很重要。這裡關於野生鳥類也很重要。]
“西伯利亞、土耳其、黑海和尼日利亞的疫情爆發時間與某些物種的已知活動完全吻合”，西伯利亞的疫情爆發時間卻並非如此。從青海到西伯利亞的連結不起作用：特別是在七月，當青海的鳥類不向北遷徙時[許多鵝此時不會飛]
「他們踢鳥是因為他們是農村人，這就是文化對待動物的方式，」——多麼令人驚訝的居高臨下。我看過農村人與野鳥互動；也許是狩獵和陷阱等等，但從來沒有這個。也許《新科學家》在那裡沒有讀過，但《新科學》被視為權威，影響報紙和其他媒體
“鄱陽縣是否有像青海那樣死於這種病毒的鵝？” – 是的，有數千隻，其中包括世界上大部分鴻雁。還有鵝、鶴等。它們都共用淺濕地，密度很高。
“鄱陽病毒和青海病毒與中國家禽中發現的任何病毒都不同。”並非中國的所有家禽都經過了檢測。看看《美國國家科學院院刊》——位於鄱陽和青海之間的華北地區，在地圖上只是一片空白。我問過關一；他們缺乏數據。所以，你只是對中國家禽中的病毒進行猜測。研究團隊在中國大陸發現了 4 種不同的菌株（Guan 提到了 250 種菌株）；如何確定北方的形式不是青海的？
「家禽的商業運輸應該幾乎隨機地運輸基因型——走私者在運輸之前不會對受感染的鳥類進行基因分型」——為什麼是隨機的？如果鳥類從中國飛往俄羅斯/哈薩克斯坦，然後通過鐵路等運輸線路繼續前進——時間確實也符合這種模式——將會是同樣的情況。
「迄今為止，唯一的長距離傳播與遷徙路徑重合，」事實並非如此；已蔓延至印尼、西藏（一例追蹤家禽運輸1500公里，蘭州至拉薩），最近又蔓延至俄羅斯等。我再次感到困惑，為什麼這個概念是由野生鳥類長距離傳播，而在家禽貿易中短距離傳播。這並沒有被美國國家科學院院刊的大量論文所證實──關於越南的介紹，顯然是從中國運送過來的。但是，方便官員。 [參閱 用腳 n 嘴；從英國到達大陸——但在那裡，沒有飛牛作為方便的替罪羊]
來自國際鳥盟的理查德·托馬斯 (Richard Thomas)：
1) 我相信我是對的，土耳其兩隻感染 H5N1 的死鴨子之一是針尾鴨。
2) 關於尼日利亞的疫情：首次報告該疾病的商業家禽養殖場距離（不記得拼字！）Hadeja-xxx 濕地約 150 公里。兩地之間有無流感農場。
去年 10 月，在濕地對野生鳥類進行了 H5N1 病毒檢測，結果均為陰性。 BirdLife 在奈及利亞有一個當地的非政府組織合作夥伴，負責監測濕地，他們沒有看到野生鳥類死亡。
3) 我們獲悉，在 2004 年尼日利亞禁止家禽進口之前，日齡雛雞透過空運抵達卡努。農業部長阿達姆貝洛在一兩天前的記者會上表示，每天都有來自中國、土耳其和其他地方的非法進口產品到達該國。
4) 尼日利亞的疫情雖然對尼日利亞及其人民造成了災難，但卻是世界迄今為止識別該疾病在世界範圍內傳播的媒介的最佳機會。如果不緊急地對所有可能的媒介進行徹底和平衡的調查，那將是一場國際悲劇；絕對不能浪費這個機會。我們已經看到糧農組織和世界衛生組織傾向於野生鳥類作為原因，但這似乎不是最合理的解釋。
引用：非洲大陸最西端的國家塞內加爾國家防禽流感委員會協調員謝赫·薩迪布·法爾(Cheikh Sadibou Fall)表示，他們處於戒備狀態。他說：“我們將研究這些病例，看看候鳥是否會傳播病毒，並採取適當措施……目前，我們對任何疑似死鳥病例保持警惕。”南非翁德斯特普特獸醫研究所的高級研究員西莉亞·阿博尼克表示，該研究所預計很快就會從馬拉威、蘇丹和肯亞的活水禽身上獲得樣本進行測試。–「採取適當措施」？恐怕這對我來說似乎相當險惡。因此，希望野鳥測試結果呈現陰性——但隨著尼日利亞所有家禽感染，周圍的野鳥肯定會受到感染。在尼日利亞期間：
引用：交易商週三表示，儘管人們擔心致命的禽流感病毒，但尼日利亞北部的市場賣家仍在進行大量死於神秘感染的雞的交易。當H5N1到達俄羅斯時，我在一個論壇上發布了有關禽類區域（中國西北部？例如，北疆，農場鵝爆發大流行）的H5N1感染的觀點，可能會導致價格下跌，然後可能會導致貿易將鳥類轉移到沒有禽流感的地區。我因此被嘲笑了。然而，對我來說，這似乎仍然合理。某個地區出現感染，物價下跌；貿易商/農民仍然想出售鳥類——特別是在補償不足的情況下，並且擔心雞群被摧毀——因此鳥類繼續出售，使 H5N1 病毒沿著貿易路線傳播。如果是這樣，那麼認為那些看似遠離 H5N1 的地方可能並沒有過度擔心它，也許並不太荒謬。 《美國國家科學院院刊》的韋伯斯特等人發現，表面上健康的雞可能會被感染——可能是受到另一種流感形式的保護，也可能是使用了劣質疫苗。 [疫苗怎麼樣？它們也是走私的嗎？ – 被偷運到泰國，但我不知道俄羅斯、歐洲，甚至奈及利亞]
奈及利亞中央銀行
首先報告
2005年下半年2005 年 11 月 18 日
「其他因素是官方舉措，包括與糧食和農業組織共同實施的糧食安全特別計畫（SPFS）
農業組織（糧農組織）；化肥補貼及進口農業化學品零關稅；加強對非法進口農產品的控制，例如家禽產品和大米。”http://www.cenbank.org/OUT/PUBLICATIONS/REPORTS/RD/2006/2005%20HALF%20YEAR%20REPORT.PDF
我對國際鳥盟的評論很感興趣——尼日利亞將是世界上試圖確定病毒起源最糟糕的地方之一。有太多潛在的傳入途徑，無法確定其起源，而在家禽中對該疾病的較晚認識使這一問題更加複雜。
我必須承認，我發現關於野鳥角色的整個爭論有點無聊。
現在有一種 H5N1 病毒株能夠感染家禽和一系列野生鳥類，該病毒已傳播到歐亞大陸並延伸到非洲。野生鳥類和貿易在這種病毒傳播中的相對貢獻幾乎無關緊要，因為必須採取預防措施，透過加強生物安全來防止兩種鳥類之間的接觸。如果無法避免接觸（如食腐雞），那麼唯一的選擇是使用疫苗接種作為感染的屏障。不完善？是的，但最好的辦法就是消除這個對農村貧困人口的經濟福祉至關重要的部門。
病毒在家禽和野鳥之間可能會發生雙向傳播，任何不認識到這兩個領域潛在風險的控制計劃都將失敗。
問候，
萊斯·西姆斯
不得不不斷重複關於野鳥不是 H5N1 主要攜帶者的爭論是很乏味的；
不斷地尋找野生鳥類受到指責，而且總是缺乏證據（到目前為止，非洲還沒有一隻 H5N1 陽性野生鳥類）；
乏味的是，即使一篇論文表明家禽貿易對於 H5N1 病毒的維持和傳播是最重要的，但它被視為野生鳥類是重要傳播媒介的證據；
對許多官員來說，野鳥很快就被指責（圍捕所有常見的嫌疑犯），這很乏味。
然而，它很重要，因為它具有保護意義，進而對人類也有影響。
對一些官員來說，現在看來「生物安全」應該包括透過直接狩獵來清除/撲殺野生鳥類，以及阻止繁殖，甚至排乾濕地。 （毛澤東試圖在中國消滅“麻雀”，因為它們被認為是害蟲；事實證明這是一個重大錯誤。）
不必要的恐懼已經被廣泛煽動。
所以是的，這很乏味，很令人沮喪。
但這些野鳥並不是造成H5N1病毒株的罪魁禍首，但野鳥卻可以直接或間接成為受害者；
野鳥沒有自己的聲音。 （他們背後也沒有任何龐大、強大的遊說團體。）馬丁
貼文編輯：馬丁，發表於：2006/02/13 01:03
引用：尼日利亞不是一個巨大的家禽生產國。尼日利亞的家禽業水準很低。直到最近，我們在尼日利亞吃的 80% 的雞肉都是進口的。現在我們才剛開始建設，即便如此，我們距離我們應該達到的目標還很遠。
最近，我們遇到了親代庫存不足的問題，因此，我們沒有足夠的可孵化種蛋供我們的家禽使用。去年聖誕節，尼日利亞出現雞肉嚴重短缺。雖然我們是很好的食者，但我們不是生產者。尼日利亞尚未做好應對禽流感大流行的準備——Emmanuel Ijewere
「如果不是野生鳥類，就很難理解，」多梅內克（糧農組織）說。 “中東、亞洲和尼日利亞之間沒有真正的貿易。”
http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/asection/la-sci-birdflu9feb09,0,7038039.story?coll=la-news-a_section唔…
引用：中尼兩國簽署了一系列貿易、經濟技術合作、促進和保護相互投資等協定。1999年至2004年，雙邊貿易額顯著成長，從5.78億美元增加至15億美元（截至2004年9月）。中國對尼出口主要為輕工業、機電產品，自尼進口為石油產品、木材、農產品等。
截至目前，已有超過67家中國企業在奈及利亞投資，涉及電信、土木工程、鋼鐵電力、摩托車組裝、漁業等領域，累計投資額達8,860萬美元。除此之外，即將進行的石油探勘開發合作將吸引約10億美元進入奈及利亞。目前還有更多投資項目正在洽談中。
在土木工程承包項目方面，超過15家中國企業參與了約50個項目，總金額$ 15億美元。
自2002年以來，中國政府向尼日利亞提供了1.114億元人民幣的無償援助，包括農村供水工程、抗瘧藥品等救援物資。在TCDC培訓班下，已有200多名尼日利亞人在中國接受了多個科目的訓練。根據聯合國糧農組織、奈及利亞和中國政府簽署的協議，目前有391名中國農業專家在尼國工作。
http://nigeria2.mofcom.gov.cn/aarticle/bilateralcooperation/inbrief/200412/20041200008435.html
例如，無法輕易找到尼日利亞與土耳其的貿易聯繫；但仍然讓我懷疑 Joseph D 在這裡是否如此權威。
貼文編輯：martin，發佈於：2006/02/13 09:41
來自國際鳥類聯盟（新聞稿）：
奈及利亞爆發疫情建議對國際家禽流動進行控制
受到廣泛蔑視尼日利亞近期爆發的H5N1禽流感表明，家禽
運動可能導致致命病毒跨越國家，甚至
各大洲。由於控制執行不力已經被歸咎於
中國、東南亞和土耳其疫情爆發，奈及利亞疫情爆發
進一步顯示生物安全方面的失誤是造成這種情況的主要原因
禽流感繼續在世界各地蔓延。雖然疫情爆發的確切性質尚不清楚，但似乎不僅僅是
病毒很可能是透過帶入的受感染家禽傳播的
country in defiance of Nigeria’s import controls. Speaking at a press
conference, Nigeria’s Agriculture Minister, Adamu Bello, said “Birds
come every day from China, Turkey, into Nigeria, and from Europe and
also from Latin America. So Nigeria is exposed. Illegal importation of
poultry by people who have farms, bringing in poultry from places and
smuggling them in…could also have been a cause.”Mr Bello was also reported by Nigeria’s Guardian newspaper group as
saying: “We think someone may have imported or smuggled in contaminated
birds.”Large scale commercial poultry farms need a regular supply of day old
chicks, and this has created a global trade in supplying the industry in
countries such as Nigeria, which are unable to undertake all the stages
of commercial production. Contesting the ban on imports of day-old stock
earlier in 2005, a poultry industry spokesman said “Nigeria does not
possess the temperature, weather conditions and much-needed technology
to produce Grand Parent stock (day old chickens) now, which is the life
wire of poultry business.”“Globalisation has turned the chicken into the world’s number one
migratory bird species” said Leon Bennun, Director of Science of
BirdLife International. “Movements of chickens around the world take
place 365 days a year, unlike the seasonal migrations of wild birds”,
Bennun added.“It is important that strict biosecurity measures are imposed to stop
further spread not only within Nigeria but also to neighbouring
countries”, says Bennun.However BirdLife is concerned that the authorities in Nigeria receive
appropriate support and advice from the international agencies managing
avian ‘flu and that resources are targeted effectively.It is extraordinary, given the strong circumstantial evidence
implicating illegal poultry movements, and the repeated opinion of
Agriculture Minister Bello, that some representatives of the UN Food and
Agriculture Organisation have announced that wild migratory birds are
the source of the outbreak.One senior FAO representative has even been quoted in the press as
saying: “If it’s not wild birds, it will be difficult to understand.
There is no real trade between the Middle East and Asia and Nigeria.”
Yet according to the websites of China’s embassy in Nigeria and their
Ministry of Commerce,”the trade volume between the two countries in 2003
reached US$ 1.86 billion,” and has continued to grow so that “Nigeria is
now China’s second largest export market and fourth largest trade
partner in Africa”.Nigeria is a major oil producing nation, and with around 25 percent of
the population of Africa within its borders to provide a market for
imports, it is increasingly being sought out as a trading partner. The
largest-scale industrial poultry production in Africa is concentrated
within Nigeria’s northern states. If the global trade in poultry is
spreading avian ‘flu, it was predictable that it would hit Nigeria
before other African countries.“Perhaps the time has come for an independent inquiry into the spread of
H5N1 over the past few years,” says Bennun. “This could help the world
to learn lessons on what could have been done differently to halt the
spread of the disease and help to stop further outbreaks.”The following link to the FAO website (beware, very large file) provides a reasonably balanced assessment of the Nigerian situation.
http://www.fao.org/docs/eims/upload//199578/EMPRES-Watch.HPAI.Nigeria.pdf
問候，
萊斯·西姆斯
Thanks, Les
Just downloaded and had quick read.
For anyone not wanting to do so, it includes:引用：In favour of the wild bird introduction hypothesis, it is noteworthy that the outbreak site in Nigeria is located at southern edge of the major Chad basin including the Hadejjia-Nguru wetland area, both considered as major wintering areas in the region for long-distance migrant species coming from Europe and Russia, including palearctic ducks. Two migrant species coming from Europe and Russia: Pintails (Anas acuta) and Garganeys (Anas querquedula), are known to overwinter in considerable numbers in Northern Nigeria in the Hadejjia-Nguru and Chad basin Wetlands.
…
The introduction of the disease through illegal trade cannot be excluded. The introduction could have happened through illegal importations of poultry or more likely poultry products. No data are available at the moment to confirm or rule out this possibility.After this, fair amount of info on migratory birds, especially pintail and garganey.
Mentions testing is underway; but of course, with H5N1 now present, finding wild birds with H5N1 in affected areas surely doesn’t prove they brought it in.And yet, very little regarding Nigeria’s poultry trade. Even though mentions that poultry production has declined, yet demand has increased (so, presumably, more incentive for smuggling – especially with govt clamping down on imports).
No mention, say, of FAO warning re day-old chick imports by air in 2004; nor even of Nigerian govt having recently said smuggling was likely cause of H5N1 being introduced.
Curious…I’m beginning to see the argument AGAINST wild birds being the PRIME vector in the spread of H5N1 as being highly plausible.
Recent news on trade (illegal) of starter chicks in Nigeria just re-inforces the argument.
Maybe the old adage about the enemy is appropot:
“We have seen the enemy, and he is us.”
Could it be, also, that the powers that be (U.N., FAO, OEI, World Bank, et. al..,) prefer NOT to target poultry trade so as to not tip the apple card of economic interests of member states? It’s political and economic suicide to bite the hand that feeds you, eh?
Therefore, wild birds who have no advocate, nor direct financial effect on economic trade get the blame.
The homogeneous nature of the genotype of H5N1 being circulated suggests two possibilties. First, the vector is a pure subtype maintained by poultry trade, or second, is a robust subtype that infects without point mutations over very long distances. Given the information I’ve read on mutations in virri is seems less possible that the H5N1 we see in the majority of isolates being posted (discussed by Dr. Niman) would be so homogeneous if they were being vectored by a purely natural process such as wild bird migration.
Chick transport is akin to bottling a vaccine. Make millions of copies of it, put them in “sterile” containers, and ship around the world..,
Might guess the virus would change if migration – notably, towards a less virulent strain.
from Richard Thomas of Birdlife, re the FAO guff:
引用：I’m rather surprised to see someone describe this as a “reasonably balanced assessment of the Nigerian situation.”It somehow fails to mention several relevant facts, such as the 150 km from the first affected farm to the Hadeja-Nguru wetlands; the presence of “flu-free” farms between the wetlands and the farm; the flu-free farm less than 5 km from the first affected farm with, wait for it: ostriches in the dangerous open air; the testing of wild birds at Hadeja-Nguru last October – all of them negative; nor the lack of die-offs in wild birds reported there this winter.
…Despite the Agriculture Minister saying several times the virus arrived with imported poultry, all we get is one brief paragraph:
“The introduction of the disease through illegal trade cannot be excluded. The introduction could have happened through illegal importations of poultry or more likely poultry products. No data are available at the moment to confirm or rule out this possibility.”
No data available? That’s surprising. Has the government’s Special Programme on Food Security (launched in January 2002 and jointly implemented with the FAO) really not looked into this issue?
The programme includes:
引用：• The establishment of Trans-border Animal Disease Information Implementation (Phase 1 and Phase II)
• The establishment of a Ministerial Animal Disease Emergency Committee.From report on Nigerial poultry trade in 2002:
引用：At present, a majority of the poultry meat imported into Nigeria enters the country illegally and evades duty payment. Most imported frozen poultry are being supplied by European exporters, such as the Netherlands, France and Belgium. U.S. poultry meat comes enters this market occasionally. Prior to the ban, legal poultry imports were discouraged by the GON’s decision to increase the duty from 55 percent to 75 percent in January 2001. Nigerian traders routinely buy from importers situated in neighboring countries. Despite the large import volumes of frozen poultry in CY2001, the Nigerian Customs Service has no record of any importer who shipped products legally and paid the required duty. Frozen poultry enter through Nigerian borders without official payment of duties. Additional costs are however, incurred in unofficial payments to Nigerian border officials (unofficial payments have increased following the announcement of the ban). After purchasing at a cold storage facility in the neighboring country, boxes of chicken are ferried across the border on the heads of laborers. After clearing the border point, the chicken is reloaded onto trucks or other vehicles and moved to interior consumption points. Imported chicken often is transported and handled without refrigeration, with food quality and safety becoming a major concern.http://www.fas.usda.gov/gainfiles/200211/145784683.pdf
引用：The recent outbreak of bird flu in the country must not be seen in isolation but in line with other variables confronting the poultry sector in the country. The pigeon that brought the disease to the country is traceable to Canada. Economic sabotage cannot be ruled out in the whole saga. The infection is found at just two poultries in Kano and Kaduna States. The north produces only two per cent of total chicken consumption in the country. The occurrence in an area that produces two per cent should not be made to affect other areas where the incident is yet to be recorded. The clamour by some people that our borders should be thrown open to importation of chickens is very suspicious. These are people who profit from smuggling of poultry products into the country. They want to cause confusion in the country and create a panicky situation. They are not happy with the progress Nigeria is recording in the area of chicken production. In countries that have recorded bird flu, it is only the poultries affected that would be quarantined and the affected birds killed and buried. Records have shown that the birds from the Kano and Kaduna cases were not from registered hatcheries. The outbreak must have come as a result of unprofessional poultry farming practice. If you breed chickens, ducks, turkey etc with animals such as pigs, the rate of infection is high. Also, poultry farm practice in which chickens, ducks etc are reared in an enclosure that have no barriers from where human beings live is dangerous. It is advisable that people do not buy chickens and other poultry product from open markets or across the country’s border because the susceptibility to the disease is high. They should buy from registered hatcheries. This will guarantee quality. Currently, Nigeria supplies the bulk of poultry need in West Africa despite the consumption of two million chickens daily in the country.Bird flu, a sabotage – Badmus The National Chairman, Poultry Association of Nigeria, Chief Olatunde Badmus, spoke with our correspondent, TUNDE ODESOLA, on the recent outbreak of Bird Flu in the country
Poultry, Not Wild Birds, Most Often Carries Deadly Avian Flu to Africa
引用：By David Brown
Washington Post Staff Writer
Thursday, February 16, 2006The lethal strain of H5N1 bird flu found in Nigeria this month probably got there in poultry and not through the movement of wild birds, according to migratory-bird experts and several lines of circumstantial evidence.
The first Nigerian cases were found at a commercial farm with 46,000 chickens, not among backyard flocks that would have greater contact with wild birds. Nigeria imports more than a million chicks a year from countries that include Turkey, where H5N1 appeared last fall, and China, where it has circulated for a decade.
Furthermore, the infected flocks in two of Nigeria’s northern states are not near wetlands where migratory birds spend the winter. There are no reports of waterfowl die-offs like those in Asia and Eastern Europe. The few wild species known to occasionally harbor H5N1 arrived months ago and are about to leave.
If it turns out that trade, not nature, was responsible for introducing H5N1 to Africa, better control of trade in domesticated birds may be able to limit the virus’s spread there and on other continents, public health experts said.
“If you put all the possible factors in perspective, we wouldn’t jump to the conclusion as others do that it was wild birds that brought it,” said Ward Hagemeijer, an ornithologist at Wetlands International, a Dutch conservation organization.
William B. Karesh, a veterinarian with the Wildlife Conservation Society in New York, said: “I would never rule out wild birds. But I think we have to look at the most probable routes, and the most probable route would be poultry. How did it skip the whole Nile Delta and get to Nigeria? That kind of bothers me. Common sense would dictate that it should be all over Egypt by now.”
The spread of H5N1 by wild birds “is a horrible assumption that a lot of people are making,” agreed Peter Marra, an ecologist with the Smithsonian Institution’s Migratory Bird Center at the National Zoo. “There is no question that migratory birds are playing a role, but they are not the main players.”
Marra said more attention should be given to the legal — and illegal — movement of poultry and pet-trade birds because “that is where you can actually do something about it.”
Some of this reasoning appears to have support in Nigeria, as well.
The Guardian, a daily newspaper published in Lagos, recently quoted the country’s agriculture minister, Adamu Bello, as saying, “We think someone may have imported or smuggled in contaminated birds.”
…
In 2002, Nigeria imported 1.2 million chickens, according to statistics on the U.N. Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) Web site. Nearly all the birds were day-old chicks.China, Nigeria and the FAO signed a $22.7 million agreement in March 2003 to have 520 Chinese agriculture experts, including poultry technicians, help Nigerian farmers. Nigeria also imported live birds from China until January 2004, when the trade was banned because of bird flu outbreaks in Asia.
Despite the import ban, numerous reports say chickens continue to come in from China. At a news conference last week, Bello said that “birds come every day from China, Turkey . . . so Nigeria is exposed,” according to a newspaper report.
In a study published this month in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, an international team led by two Chinese researchers reported that a survey of more than 50,000 birds in live-poultry markets there found 1 percent were infected with H5N1 virus.
The researchers also sampled about 13,000 migratory birds and found that six were carrying H5N1 and did not appear to be ill — evidence that healthy migrants may be able to carry the microbe long distances.
The genetic diversity in the virus samples from domestic chickens led the researchers to deduce that “H5N1 virus is perpetuated in poultry largely through the movement of poultry and poultry products, rather than by . . . migrating birds.”
Although no H5N1 has been found in wild birds in West Africa, elsewhere the virus has been found in three duck species that spend winter in Africa. They are the garganey, the northern pintail and the northern shoveller — about 3.5 million birds in all — said Alex Kaat of Wetlands International.
None of the wintering places are close to the chicken outbreaks, however, Kaat said.
親愛的馬丁，
I do not know how an H5N1 virus got into Nigeria but ruling out wild birds as a possible source on the basis that the disease was reported first in a large farm ignores what has happened in many other newly infected countries.
Finding the disease first in a large poultry farm does not mean that these were the first poultry infected/affected.
Reports of infection with H5N1 viruses often only emerge when there is a major die off in a commercial farm and not when poultry die in village flocks where mortalities from other causes occur regularly and the lower stocking density means that the disease may only affect a small part of the flock (not most poultry as it does in large commercial farms). Iin Malaysian backyard farms in 2004 the average mortality rate was just over 5%. We also know that many cases in smallholdings go undiagnosed based on the fact that detection of human cases in Asia often precedes detection in poultry in the household or village.
In addition, absence of data on farms.villages in the 150 km from the inland delta should not be assumed to mean there is lack of infection or disease in this zone.
Evidence for the role of both trade and wild birds in bringing the virus to Nigeria will remain circumstantial and both possibilities need to be explored, although, as mentioned previously, Nigeria would be one of the worst places in the world to try to do this analysis given the large volumes of illegal trade, the time lag from initial suspcion to diagnosis and limited veterinary capacity.
The presence of virus in wild swans in multiple countries in western Europe provides sufficient evidence to show that under certain circumstances wild birds can move highly pathogenic H5N1 virus over considerable distances. They may well be victims but that doesn’t mean they (or possibly other wild birds that infect the swans) aren’t involved in moving the virus over borders. This is probably the best evidence available for wild bird movement of virus since the Mongolian cases.
So far this dispersal of virus to Western Europe has not resulted in any cases in poultry but eventually one will occur – most likey via contaminated water, not direct contact, or perhaps via an intermediate non-migratory feral bird which can be infected or even act as a mechanical vector to transfer virus over a short distance.
I am not blaming wild birds for all the spread of H5N1 avian influenza. Trade with infected places is still the key means of spread especially once a virus is established in an area but care needs to be taken not to rule out wild birds as possible vectors on the basis of imperfect information.
We also need to be realistic about the capacity to prevent smuggling of poultry and other birds. If there are economic incentives to smuggle (and rampant corruption) then there will be smuggling. For a number of countries all we can do is to factor this into the equation when developing disease prevention strategies for the industry and minimise the risks arising from this practice.
問候，
萊斯·西姆斯
親愛的萊斯：
thanks, yes; I agree. But the Post article brings some balance, which I believe was not present in FAO report (FAO at high levels seems set on blaming wild birds).
Tho as to swans likely causing infections in poultry: maybe wait n see.
Infected swans in Romania didn’t infect other waterbirds they shared ponds with (these birds looked healthy; several tested and negative).
Maybe significant they excreted low amounts of virus.Seen re problems in Nigeria perhaps dating back to Dec, maybe on small farms. (But still, no problems evident w waterbirds)
馬丁
Just had message re Kano airport, north Nigeria, being important for wildlife trade/smuggling, inc parrots.
eg, see:
http://forests.org/archive/africa/nigtrapp.htm
in German (different article):
http://www.papageien.org/sts/wptpe/I guess parrots will be in markets (in Nigeria) where also poultry traded – rather as I’ve seen in southern China.
Any measures, then, to look extra hard in case smuggled parrots etc coming from Nigeria?
Panic, Losses As Bird Flu Strikes – article in Daily Champion (Lagos) February 16, 2006
Posted to the web February 16, 2006
by John Shiklam
LagosIncluded:
引用：The outbreak of the deadly bird flu in Kaduna State last week, has thrown the poultry industry into confusion and raised concerns over the implication on the health of the citizenry. Correspondent, JOHN SHIKLAM, who visited Birnin Yero village, where the disease was first noticed, reports.
…
The problem, it was learnt actually started in December last year when Sambawa Farms purchased its day old chicks somewhere in Kano. Several of the birds were said to have been dying off on daily basis, prompting the invitation of experts to investigate the cause of the death of the birds in the farms.Veterinary scientists at the Ahmadu Bello Unversity (ABU), Zaria were said to have embarked on thorough investigations after which the National Veterinary Research Institute (NVRI) Vom, near Jos, Plateau state, diagnosed their sickness as the avian bird flu.
…
Among the steps taken by the state government are the destruction of all birds at the Sambawa farms as well as birds in other commercial farms who could have bought their day old chicks from the identified place in Kano.Nigeria suspects illegal imports brought bird flu
March 02, 2006, 20:45 Nigeria suspects that illegal poultry imports were to blame for introducing deadly bird flu to Africa’s most populous country, the information minister said today. The virus known as H5N1 has spread to seven of the country’s 36 states and the capital city since it was first detected in northern Nigeria on February 8, but 90% of infected farms bought day-old chicks from one farm in Kano state, Frank Nweke, the minister said. He said in a statement: "There is a very strong basis to believe that avian flu may have been introduced into Nigeria through illegally imported day-old chicks. "Further investigations, into the activities of farms where birds have tested positive to the highly pathogenic avian flu, revealed that 90% of them patronised the Sovet Farms Ltd in Kano." Customs agents impounded almost 200 smuggled cartons of hatching eggs at the country’s main international airport in Lagos in January, he added. Adamu Bello, the agriculture minister had originally blamed illegal imports for the bird flu outbreak, which has led to the destruction of 450 000 birds and deaths of thousands more, but he later pointed to migrating wild birds as the source.
[“機器翻譯”]
[url=http://www.lapresse.ch/vqhome/le_journal/economie/usine_poulet_130306.edition=nv
.html]The H5N1 will support the chicken factories[/url]INTERVIEW Switzerland Samuel Jutzi is l’un directors of
l’Organisation of the United Nations for l’alimentation and
l’agriculture (FAO). It analyzes the consequences of the influenza
aviaire for the poultry producers and the consumers.To the head office of FAO, to Rome, Samuel Jutzi, directs division
livestock health and production. A station which places it in first
line in the battle against virus H5N1 that FAO carries out on the
ground, mainly in the countries deprived of effective veterinary
services.– How this epidemic could become such extensive?
– It is still a mystery! Frankly, when the disease was declared
practically at the same time in ten country, c’ was a surprise. One
thought of the migratory birds but, at the time, their routes did not
correspond to the extension of the disease. Today, it is supposed
that it is the poultry trade which propagated the disease at its
beginnings in Asia.– And elsewhere in the world?
– last year, the assumption of the migratory birds re-appeared for
the extension of the disease towards the west, but there are still
many uncertainties. As for the arrival of the disease in Nigeria, the
most probable assumption, it is that of illegal poultry imports, even
if the migrating ones perhaps also played a role.Not Nigeria, but relevant
Wrong vaccine spread virus 包括：引用：The prevalence of the virus in rural areas has surprised many.
According to a report prepared by the ministries of agriculture and
health, in conjunction with the parliamentary Agriculture Committee,
it suggests that domestic poultry, and not wild birds, account for
the spread of the highly pathogenic virus. There is no scientific
proof that migrating wild birds brought the deadly virus to the
country, says the report. If that were the case, then coastal cities
would have been the first to be infected. So far, though, they remain
free of infection while the majority of human and poultry H5N1 cases
have been detected in rural areas.
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