Martin W

Thanks, Les

Just downloaded and had quick read.
For anyone not wanting to do so, it includes:

In favour of the wild bird introduction hypothesis, it is noteworthy that the outbreak site in Nigeria is located at southern edge of the major Chad basin including the Hadejjia-Nguru wetland area, both considered as major wintering areas in the region for long-distance migrant species coming from Europe and Russia, including palearctic ducks. Two migrant species coming from Europe and Russia: Pintails (Anas acuta) and Garganeys (Anas querquedula), are known to overwinter in considerable numbers in Northern Nigeria in the Hadejjia-Nguru and Chad basin Wetlands.

The introduction of the disease through illegal trade cannot be excluded. The introduction could have happened through illegal importations of poultry or more likely poultry products. No data are available at the moment to confirm or rule out this possibility.

After this, fair amount of info on migratory birds, especially pintail and garganey.
Mentions testing is underway; but of course, with H5N1 now present, finding wild birds with H5N1 in affected areas surely doesn’t prove they brought it in.

And yet, very little regarding Nigeria’s poultry trade. Even though mentions that poultry production has declined, yet demand has increased (so, presumably, more incentive for smuggling – especially with govt clamping down on imports).
No mention, say, of FAO warning re day-old chick imports by air in 2004; nor even of Nigerian govt having recently said smuggling was likely cause of H5N1 being introduced.