Wetlands International has an informative Powerpoint presentation online: Wild birds as potential vectors of Avian Influenza between SW Siberia and the Netherlands
Looking through this, I thought a route map better fit Niman’s purported wild bird flu spread map than I’d expected. Nial Moores reckoned not:
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Might be missing something, but movement around Urals still does not seem to me to fit at all Niman’s pattern does it? Outbreaks reached Novosibirisk, and then simply mostly went east and west from there along the border — in late summer, not in autumn. Not north. Thats also a long way from the area marked on the migration map (with ‘lower arrow’ pointing southwestward). Additionally, would be interested to know how much of that apparent northward movement is really proven, rather than assumed? How much is due to earth’s curvature rather than actual northward movement? Were there actually many recoveries of individuals actually north of breeding areas, or rather in areas to WNW? Seems very likely that there would be a nice divide in some species/populations in north and south of western europe (thermoclines, habitat types), but are there many people actually to observe movement between middle Ob and Urals and Russian coast? Also, still trying to find where South Yamal is… Thanks very much for the link to gulls: as you say seems very odd to dismiss as HIAP so quickly if wild birds died… Too much to absorb, and pity that language is perhaps still not being used precisely enough… Best wishes, Nial Birds Korea