Martin W

news coming in of mystery illness infecting at least 20 farmers in Sichuan; nine dead so far. Don’t yet know it’s bird flu. Yet, no sooner had I posted to Agonist bulletin board a message including: "I guess some folk will now look to see re wild birds moving from Qinghai." – than I see that Henry Niman, at Recombinomics, already suggesting wild birds from Qinghai are responsible. Says it’s snowed at Qinghai already, and birds moving out he figures – never mind that the infected farmers are in Sichuan basin, which is not a migration/wintering area for Qinghai birds like bar-headed geese. (Again, who needs to worry about facts getting in the way of a good story? Sadly, not Niman. :blink: ) I also posted: "Maybe, instead, starting to see there was truth in notions that vaccinating poutry can lead to silent epidemics, and new virus strains. (extra note: This based partly on assumption the Sichuan outbreak is bird flu – which is by no means certain.)

– and see re Vietnam to start vaccinating poultry, even tho still concerns about this:

Bird flu vaccines in poultry are controversial. Flu can sometimes spread silently among vaccinated birds, both evading detection and coming under novel selection pressures that can produce new strains. The current virulent strain of H5N1 emerged among vaccinated poultry in China.