Here are comments I’ve been sent by ornithologist who attended recent conference on wild birds and flu in Rome:
I replied:
I know Webster knows much re viruses, but ignoring natural selection seems completely wrong-headed. His notion re 50% of world population perhaps dying just wacky.
Yes, I know re Europe; but again, it’s duck (and other bird) deaths. Why so much ignoring of situation in e Asia – Japan, Korea, Hong Kong among places with surveillance, no H5N1 in migratory wild waterbirds this past winter. (An egret in HK maybe resident; at time some landbirds affected, I believe linked to markets – were poultry cases too.) Also wrong-headed to ignore this.
[With Europe an anomaly, maybe some linkage to some waterbirds often living close to humans; I wonder too if some linkage to fish farming, say Romania, which has many outbreaks in poultry.]
Being stubborn is one thing, but for Webster to ignore so much, to not enter into dialogue with birding community, seems very lacking (no ornithologist cited on paper re Poyang ducks etc). I’ve emailed him and others; had replies from Guan Yi, spoke to Malik Peiris over the phone, Webster just some brief missive citing his being a bigwig.
Too bad re not enough ornithologists at conference; too bad too that some w funding from FAO prepared to toe and tout the line (yellow-billed magpie tester, stand up please!).
Good, though, that things changing re blame the birds. (“dead birds don’t fly” said Lubroth!; but same tune from Domenech).
But FAO refusal to (that we know of) investigate potential role of integrated fish farming verges on criminal. Might help explain the virus persisting and being so widespread in Indonesia – you’ve perhaps seen my shots of catfish feasting on chicken carcasses. Maybe helps explain persistence in eastern Europe, and elsewhere (Vietnam, say, where at one point thought to have been eradicated, but virus resurfaced. Webster blames ducks – of course! And domestic ducks do play some role, shown in Thailand; but even in this case, seemed virus tending to die out. It has better survival in warm water than regular bird flus, maybe an adaptation to ponds in onr near the tropics.)
quick reply just in:
to which I’ve sent:
Webster’s comment is ridiculous. Argument re fish farms is not re fish catching flu, but about dumping lots of H5N1 into fish farms. Webster has found this survives better in warm water, yet apparently hasn’t thought why this might be – again, mark of a man to whom natural selection is of no consequence. (Nor other people’s views; unless they happen to be supporting his research?)
For 2003/04 in Asia, I wrote re migratory bird routes/timings not fitting H5N1 spread. V tiresome to have had to repeat these arguments, while still belief by too many in tooth fairy bird.