#3738
imported_Martin
Participant

Hi Gänseerpel:

“Mode of transmission: wild birds” seems typical; yet when try looking into reasons for this, eividence can seem weak, or non-existent (seen wild birds blamed for, say, outbreak in poultry in Xinjiang – and no wild birds in report to OIE).

Guan Yi perhaps has best handle on data; see comments by experts thread, where he says wild birds not responsible for spread.
Les Sims comments to this forum (thread on farming) also of interest: he too has massive experience with H5N1, inc working for FAO.

Indeed, you would figure dead wild birds should be all over Romania esp Danube Delta; trail of bodies from Russia (yet not sure if birds here were from affected parts of Russia; Croatia’s swans, say, from Europe – at least one being well during stopover in Hungary).

Have you also seen my piece on dead ducks not flying, via links at left (bird flu n wild birds) – on 2003/04 outbreaks in Asia, and wild birds victims, not vectors.
H5N1 isn’t novelty here in Asia (I’m in Hong Kong). Yet, this autumn/winter, no reports in wild waterbirds in Asia ex-Russia – which is surely hugely significant.
In Hong Kong, had occasional wild birds die, found to have H5N1 – first in 2002, but no spread, no excess deaths, no H5N1 found in healthy wild bird despite testing (over 16,000 birds in past two years). Potent evidence I think that H5N1 is not and cannot become established in wild birds.

Indeed frustrating people like Joseph Domenech of FAO can blame wild birds so readily with such scant evidence.

H5N1 pathogenicity can be sustained only in poultry, I believe; maybe poor vaccines are helping with this. (Thread on evolutionary biology of relevance here. Helps explain why true wild birds flus are mild.)
[Tho I’m less clued up than you re configurations.]

Glad you find this thread of use.

Martin