Reply To: I don’t believe wild birds are spreading h5n1

[Martin W]

Ah, too bad you hadn’t seen the Henry Niman – Prophet of Doom thread. So much of what Niman writes is wrong that best ignored if possible. So much blame from him for wild birds spreading H5N1 with no real evidence (and main evidence to contrary); it’s not as tho Niman’s a polite fellow; way too much clutter of flu threads elsewhere with Nimanism. Bah! Two findings of LPAI H5N1 strains in wild birds that I know of (another in mallard, US, 1986; tho seems to me there’s more evidence of such strains since HPAI H5N1 has developed in poultry before). Both ducks, not "wild birds" in general. For H5N1 to become non virulent in wild birds, need considerable evolution; not seeing this in wild (and there is considerable testing; also lack of wild bird deaths from H5N1 pretty near everywhere). Lower path H5N1 in domestic/experimental ducks in low titres cloaca; ducks don’t French kiss and I’ve never seen wild ducks sneeze, so spreading it tough. Swans in Croatia also low titres cloaca; other birds on ponds with them not infected [source of the swans infection a mystery: why swans here, Volga, predominating among the – rather few – wild birds affected in Romania?] With H5N1 of Guangdong goose 96 lineage in poultry so virulent, I’ll say it is not going to happen. Once into wild, natural selection stops it pretty near dead in its tracks. (Those tree sparrows odd; but many questions raised, inc re poultry in vicinity.) [May be shift if get much longer time with H5N1, and perhaps find things happen as China carries out massive poultry vaccinations. But I doubt it.]