Just reading some info on Niman’s site

“The Qinghai isolates were also virulent in chickens. Experimentally infected chickens dies within 20 hours.” [not so good, then, for wild birds to get infected, then fly a long way in the wrong directions, especially if they happen to be flightless from moulting]

Niman on his certainties re migratory birds spreading the virus:
[no info on species involved, nor info on migration routes and timings, no explanation of why virus first spread northwest during/late in the breeding season, no real ideas re just how if it’s moving in wild birds only the virus can get into so many farms so quickly … Bah!]

He concludes this page by saying:
“However, the mounting dead bodies on the ground, should easily define the migratory routes, which will likely cover most of Asia, Europe, and beyond.”
– well, we’ll see.
As yet, we are not seeing spread along migration routes – not following timings of migrations, anyway.
Whether a pattern will emerge of outbreaks that actually do follow known info on bird movements, we’ll have to wait and see. As for me, I’m sceptical; but expect that will see more outbreaks following other routes – known as roads.