Chicken Little Flu posts on The Agonist

Now it's the end of August, it's kind of entertaining to revisit a post on The "thoughtful" Agonist bulletin boards. Started on 23 July, this was headed "When will MSM (main stream media) call a pandemic?"

Here are snippets of posts, inc the first one; I've noted which are due to former surgery instructor Henry Niman (for more info on Niman and Nimanism, see other threads on this forum). Whenever I discuss this with family or friends, everyone says, "Well if it was that bad we'd hear about it." So, I'd like to know if there is a consensus on the date this will occur. ...

On April 6, 2005, The website Recombinomics stated that "...the flu pandemic of 2005 has clearly begun". I had read another artical, I dont know which or where (but not Recombinomics) that put the first wave, in an exponential period at three months from the start. That would have been July 6. That first wave would then hit me 45 days after that (in Florida), and engulf the rest of the US by no later than 6 months after the proclaimed start. I chose Dr. Nimans statement - for all intensive purposes to be "my" understanding of the start. In my opinion, the world will be knee deep in bodies by October 6th. All of my preperations will be completed August 6th, giving me 15 days of room. BUT, I forcast it will be in the US within 2 weeks. ... drj will take the "under": virus will be here 13 days from today (August 5).

... I'll get under that and say H5N1 is already in the US, but too mild for testing and/or reporting. [this from ... drum roll please ... Niman]

... From another post I declared..." Father's day 2005 [19 June] would be the day historians would mark for an arbritary date that the pandemic started."

... I'll lay odds it's already in Canada geese and various NA duck species, just waiting for the first freeze in Alaska/NWT to migrate south. I'll take the over-we'll really start to notice (I should say, major media will notice) about Labor Day. I have revised my thinking about the first freeze up there-more likely 3rd or 4th week of August (I originally said 2nd-3rd week Aug) ... Actually, all replies, including mine don't address the MSM question, which will be long after H5N1 has arrived. They will figure it out by the time the bodies pile up on the curb, but probably not much before. ...

So, when do the bodies pile up on the curb in the U. S.?

... October 15th, I think we'll see enough belly-up to call it stage 6, although WHO will wait till everybody's dead, just to be sure...

... LL: I'll say September 1st is my target date for MSM attention in the U.S. and by then, I'll guess less than 50 dead and 1000+ infected (because some infected will survive for weeks before death such as the girl in Jakarta, who survived 20 days after onset of symptoms). ... November or December. The pigs in Indonesia are the key, in my opinion.

... I pick Sept. 2 as it is my birthday. That seems like as good a date as any. *laughing ruefully* ... Aug 6 when things become pretty clear that it is getting "problematic"... Sept before widespread troubles in the States. ...

So the consensus thus far is: August to December 2005. My prediction: If any of these dates is correct, the MSM will have lost whatever credibility it had and sites like this one, Recombinomics, Flu Clinic and Effect Measure will have shown themselves to be more reliable. Someone should write a book documenting the timeline of warnings on these sites vs. the headlines the same day on the MSM. Flu pandemic coverups in China vs. the favorite gifts of the runaway bride.

... I doubt there wil be much school this coming year. I live in a city were a very large University dominates the economy. We are all pretty much agreed that "it" - more or less- has started. When the Director of WHO stands up on TV and sez that "it" could start any minute...

..I think she is simply preparing the rest of the clueless country for what She knows is already happening. H2H [human to human transmission] is occuring in the world. It is coming sooner than later. Things are going to heat up on THIS sight as more people Google to Recombinomics and get directed here.  

... There are several reason to assume that H5N1 is silently spreading in humans. Probably the best evidence is the evidence WHO refuses to acknowledge. Northern Vietnam collected 1000 serum samples from people and animals in March. Many of the human samples were from patients with mild dymptoms of contacts of known positive. Many of these samples were positive by western blot. I believe many were then confirmed by PCR. WHO did a third try in Japan and when the results were negative WHO concluded that two poistives and a negative equals a negative. Such calculations are politocal, not scientific. These patients have been infected with H5N1 and probably have transmitted more mild versions of the virus, which has now spread worldwide. The second piece of evidence is the result from the H7N7 outbreak in the Netherlands. Many of the cullers were infected but had mild symoms ranging form nothing to conjunctivitis. Follow-up antibody tests indicated over a thousand contacts of the cullers had H7 antibodies, but few had symptoms. They were infected and transmitted silently. The third data point comes from the boxun reports which describes a H5N1 strains that just produces mild-flu like symptoms.

This data sounds much like the northern Vietnam data and the H5N1 in the north has genetic similarities with H5N1 in Yunnan. Boxun reports also sugegst that the thousands of admission in Guangdong province are not do to peole sleeping with windows open, but are in fact H5N1 infections. I would think that many mild cases hopped on planes and distributed the virus worldwide, but it hidden by other flu cases or is just not producing severe enough symptoms to even have a visit to the doctor. [from Niman. Err, so h5n1 isn't really all that dangerous, then?]

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Like a phoenix rising from the ashes, the Agonist Bird Flu / Disease Outbreaks Forum has been resurrected, ... mostly Chicken-Little free now! It's now just the most up-to-date source for news about bird flu, without all the hysteria, and mostly Niman-free.

That was brave of the Agonist! Here's hoping it remains relatively free of Nimanism. Had quick look at the Agonist, and found this article, which would fit right in with Chicken Little flu posts quoted above, but was written as humour (back in Feb): [url='s Leading Alarmists Excited About Bird Flu[/url]

Well I gotta say it almost cost me my sanity, but we are back to being thoughtful once again. :)